Checkdown Chatter

In the coming weeks, Patriots fans will realize that as Tom Brady said in his post game comments, it is better to have lost in the big game then to have not been there at all, but, this morning after a last minute defeat to the-becoming-arch-rival Giants Patriots fans are disappointed.

Whether they are foul mouthed supermodel wives or just the average fan, Pats backers are hurting today. The Giants did a lot to win the game, but, the Patriots did a lot to give it away, including a 12 men on the field penalty that cost them a turnover, and, the failure to jump on just one of two other loose balls, or, the inability of Wes Welker to display his steady-handedness on a potentially game icing drive in the 4th quarter, the Patriots – as well as they played in a number of areas – left the win on the field on Sunday night, and, that is what hurts the most.

Again, however, looking at it in the big picture, the team still boasts an all time quarterback/coach combo, is 3-2 in recent SuperBowls, and, they got to the dance in 2012. Looking ahead to next season, one can only assume that they will address the issues that marred their otherwise impressive season, drafting some help in the secondary and a legitimate deep threat receiver who could make their offense even more impressive in 6 months time. So, its not all doom and gloom for the Patriots, but, as Giants fans celebrate today its understandable that Boston, and fans around the globe, share a collective depression today.

Weekly winners in blue.

Thanks to all for coming playing this year. Was fun for me.

I’d much rather have seen my Patriots come up with a victory, but, I’ll take the win with the Hernandez switch.

At the end of the day, though, I can’t claim my own prize… so… if Marc chooses to he can email me (jon.collins@hotmail.com) and I’ll send along the prize, 3 jersey cards from ebay, a disappointing David Garrard, Jim Kleinssasser and a Taylor Jacobs (I’ve never heard of him either) rookie card.

Means, our two time champ, finishes a meager 3rd place.

	Team	Wild Card	Divisional	Championship		Total
1	Checkdown	183.56	233.68	144.4	87.14	648.78
2	Marc	200	221.14	146	75.44	642.58
4	NPI	189.96	202.28	137.5	85.14	614.88
5	Ryan	168.52	217.98	141.4	85.14	613.04
3	Means	177.92	231.88	130.9	71.74	616.44
6	WC3	170.82	222.48	127.9	0	521.2
7	MattyIce	188.7	0		0	188.7
8	BBB	182.72	0		0	182.72

I’ve acknowledged to fan bias a time or two in my articles, and, today is no different. I type this in my Brady jersey anxiously (somewhat nervously…) counting down to kickoff.

Its going to be a tight contest, by all accounts, so, naturally I’m sweating it out a bit, but… today, I’m picking my Patriots to come home with football’s ultimate prize; and, that choice is right… here’s why.

MHK - I don’t want to overplay this angle because its been talked about all week, and, I think the over-done media scrutiny kind of cheapens the story as it pertains to the Kraft family, but, I will say that Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and others within the Patriots organization are master motivators, and, they’ve turned the season’s dedication into a rallying cry and a will to win. Speaking of that, the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, the Patriots were looking for a perfect season, so, undoubtedly the motivation was there, but, I don’t think that we can discount the fact that while few current Pats players were involved in that disappointing defeat, the core remains and these players are certainly reminding their teammates about the importance of revenge this time around. While motivation is far from a determining factor, in a matchup where teams are seemingly closely matched, it may be the tipping point and to me, the balance swings in the Patriots favour.

Remember 2001 - In fact, while Vegas favours the Patriots this is the first Super Bowl appearance since XXXVI against the Rams where most people believed they weren’t the dominant team. If you’ll recall, Belichick crafted a master game plan and the Pats took down the greatest show on turf. Certainly, this year’s defense isn’t like the 2001 iteration, but, they have been playing well enough lately and have done a great job of taking away the football which could turn out to be a key in this game. The Patriots are used to playing in this position, and while they haven’t been an underdog a whole lot in recent years, make no mistake, this is a team and a coach that thrives in that role.

Matchups - And then, there is the actual part where it matters, the talent on the field. There has been a  lot of talk about the Giants pass rush, and, certainly they have grown into a fearsome unit as the season has progressed, but, on the whole I think the New York defense is overrated. At the end of the day, I like the Patriots offensive line – with a healthy Sebastian Vollmer back in the mix – to keep the likes of JPP, Tuck and Osi at bay. Particularly if the Patriots are running their typical two tight end sets and get rookie Nate Solder in the mix as an extra lineman – without rushing 5, I don’t see them getting as much pressure as people anticipate on Tom, and, if they bring an extra man on the rush I like his ability to get the ball out quickly in the short passing game. Then there is the Patriots defensive front itself. While it doesn’t measure up to the likes of the Giants, in overall ability and name brand recognition, Vince Wilfork is playing some of the best football of his career right now and Mark Anderson is picking up right where Andre Carter left off, with the struggles that the Giants offensive line has had this season, I think the bigger mismatch is actually the Patriots defensive line vs. the Giants o-line and not the other way around.

Run Game - I listened to Pat Kirwan take a call on Sirius XM Satellite Radio this week and he asked a simple question: if I asked you to pick who was better at running the football and at stopping the run this season, who would you choose. The caller picked the Giants, and, many people hold this misconception, but, in fact, the Giants were dead last this season running the ball. Ahmad Bradshaw plays in this game after missing the week 9 contest between the two teams, but, I think the edge still belongs to New England. They’ve (slightly) outgained the Giants in the post season as well. Add to this the fact that BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never lost a fumble in his NFL career, in a game where one bad bounce could be the difference and I like the odds of the Patriots running the ball a fair bit, and, doing so effectively.

Beat Me Once… – I’ve discussed the revenge/motivation factor above and this definitely plays a role, but, there is also the fact that the Patriots are exceptionally hard to beat two games in one season. Part of this is just that they are tough to beat altogether, but, the other part is once you’ve tipped your strategic hand to a coaching mind like Belichick’s he knows a lot more about you than you’d like going into the game. Undoubtedly the Giants game plan will be considerably different than it was 3 months ago when these teams first met, but, the team remains quite similar and with a second look Belichick and Brady will have a chance to make the appropriate adjustments heading into this contest. The Giants are a more complete team then they were during the first meeting, but, the Patriots defense has improved considerably from that time as well and I think the edge goes to the Patriots based on the ’second meeting factor’.

Then, at the end of the day, there is the fact that Eli Manning isn’t Tom Brady. The Giants are more talented in a number of other areas, and, the G-men’s leading 3 receivers easily outmach the Patriot’s secondary, but, as clutch as Eli has been in the 4th quarter this season, he’s not Tom Brady in the big game moment and I believe he’ll be the difference.

There are lots of reasons why the Giants could win as well, but, the Patriots will win… and that’s why.

	Team	Wild Card	Divisional	Champ	Total
1	Marc	200	221.14	146	567.14
2	Checkdown	183.56	233.68	144.4	561.64
3	Means	177.92	231.88	130.9	540.7
4	NPI	189.96	202.28	137.5	529.74
5	Ryan	168.52	217.98	141.4	527.9
6	WC3	170.82	222.48	127.9	521.2
7	MattyIce	188.7	0		188.7
8	BBB	182.72	0		182.72

For SuperBowl week we’ll just pick one QB, 3 WRs, 2RBs, a TE and K. Also, I’ll host a props contest like the last few years.

AFC QB	NFC QB
Tom Brady	Eli Manning
AFC RB	NFC RB
BenJarvus Green Ellis Stevan Ridley Danny Woodhead	Ahmad Bradshaw Brandon Jacobs
AFC WR	NFC WR
Deoin Branch Wes Welker Chad Ochocinco	Hakeem Nicks Victor Cruz Mario Manningham
AFC TE	NFC TE
Aaron Hernandez Rob Gronkowski	Jake Ballard
AFC K	NFC K
Stephen Gostkowski	Lawrence Tynes

The offseason is still very young, and, as soon as the SuperBowl ends on Sunday night, we’re entering into full on speculation mode about what is to come for the NFL’s 32 franchises.

There has been much discussion already about personnel moves, coaching changes, etc. but, all season long nothing has taken more of our attention than the health of Peyton Manning and this is only the beginning.

Today, I read a piece of ‘breaking’ news. I love profootballtalk.com, I read it every day, and, its a great source of information. But, this is at least the 3rd article I’ve read in a short span of exactly the same substance on this subject – essentially, saying nothing.

Today, news comes across the wire that the Redskins are interested in acquiring Peyton Manning if he is healthy. This is news?! The Redskins find themselves on a list ranging between 10 and 20 teams that would mortgage the stadium to get 2 or 3 seasons out of a healthy Peyton Manning.

There are a number of problems with all this speculation, though. The two foremost should be obvious to most NFL personnel men, and, most people writing the articles that fuel the speculation. 1) Manning may not be in a position to play at all 2) The Indianapolis Colts have yet to release them, and, if he’s cleared to play they likely wont.

Then, there is the obvious, Manning has compiled a 94.9 career QB Rating while throwing for nearly 55,000 yards and 399 TDs, at a 2:1 TD to INT Ratio. He’s not the quarterback he was 3 or 4 years ago, and, he’ll be coming off a year without football, but, he’s still a gem in a quarterback landscape that is too often full of lumps of coal. Any team without a quarterback named Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Manning (the other one) and a select few others is likely to be interested in his services.

It is the nature of all bloggers, journalists, writers professional or otherwise to strive to create content – so, we’re likely to see a lot of this type of article all offseason – rampant speculation and nothing else, particularly if the ‘if he’s healthy’ tag is attached to it, because, we simply know nothing about Manning’s status for the 2012 season and beyond at this point.

At any rate, I’ve written a shell article below in an effort to help my content starved brethren in the coming months, just copy, paste and ‘insert team name here’.

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(Author Name) of (Local Newspaper) reports today that in conversation with team officials the (insert team name here) have indicated that if doctors clear Peyton Manning medically to play in the upcoming season they will be first in line to sign him.

“Peyton is a first class player” says (team coach name, gm, unnamed source) “and we at the (insert team name here) would be honoured to have him as the quarterback of our football club.”

What remains unknown, of course, is the status of Manning’s neck, and whether the player is willing to put his surgically repaired vertebrae on the line knowing that one blind side hit could cause irreparable damage. Sources from the Manning camp were unavailable for comment.

Whether Manning remains with the Colts in Indy or moves on to a team like the (insert team name here) is unclear at this point, but, what we know is that Peyton will be a hot commodity if he hits the open market.

---

So, there it is. Just copy and paste two or three times a week for the next couple of months and all of a sudden we’re at the NFL draft. Its the perfect recipe for passing time in the offseason and the best part of all is it contains no news, content purely for content’s sake. Recycle at will.

I don’t know a whole lot about big box retail management, of course, but I do have a friend who works as an analyst with Sobeys (I know, I’m Canadian and most NFL fans will miss the reference, but, its a big grocery store chain… ok?). His job, along with others in his department is to look at trends, perform sales forecast, and work to maximize revenue per square inch of floor space. The point  - a lot more goes into the items you see on the shelf, the sales, the marketing, etc. than most of us tend to think about.

Knowing this, I had to laugh when scoping out the Super Bowl Tostitos display at Walmart today. The ad features cut outs of Clay Matthews, Miles Austin and Mark Sanchez. I know that the ads have a lot to do with player marketability and the willingness of the athlete to stump for the product but you’d think someone would do a better job of forecasting here? When 2/3 players involved didn’t even qualify for the playoffs, and, the 3rds squad ended up as a disappointment, I don’t feel like my snacks are going to be SuperBowl-y delicious.

The AFC Championship game wasn’t a typical win for the 2011 Patriots. Their bend but don’t break defense nearly broke (in fact, if Billy Cundiff takes a time out/depending on who you ask about the Lee Evans non-touchdown it broke indeed), quarterback Tom Brady took too many chances with the ball and missed open receivers, and the team generally struggled to get past the Ravens, but, they did do so and are on their way to their first SuperBowl since the end of the 2007 season, facing a familiar foe.

Let’s take a minute to appreciate this accomplishment. As far as dynasties go, the 2000s clearly belonged to Brady and Belichick and, while time is running out on their tenure at the top they are making an early stamp on the ‘10s with a 14-2 record last season and an appearance in this year’s big game in Indy.

Looking at Brady’s career, this, more often than not has been the case. Reaching football’s biggest stage is a daunting task – there are high end players who go their whole careers without having the opportunity, there are entire franchises who have never made an appearance, but, for Brady and his Patriots it is a fairly common occurrence. I was tipped off to this stat while listening to SiriusXM NFL Radio on Monday and I’d like to share it, as I think it is rather significant. Brady, 34, is in his 12^th NFL season. He only threw 3 passes in his rookie year and just 11 in an injury shortened season in 2008, so, he’s essentially had 10 complete pro seasons. Tom has made the SuperBowl in 50% of them. This year will be his 5^th SuperBowl appearance tying John Elway for the most of all time (Elway’s 2-3 record will be inferior to Brady’s regardless of the outcome of this year’s contest).

That’s an impressive stat, isn’t it? Brady and his coach, of course, expect to reach the pinnacle each season but few tandems actually make it a reality. In fact, there have only been 18 quarterbacks (this season Eli Manning will run the total to 19) who have appeared in multiple SuperBowls in their career. Everyone on the list with 3 or more appearances is a hall of famer (or, a future member of the HOF class assuming Big Ben, Brady and perhaps more of a stretch, Kurt Warner are eventually enshrined) and Brady tops them all by getting into the big game every other year. Further, Tom Terriffic has a chance to tie Montana and Bradshaw this season with a record 4 SuperBowl starts, in fairness to them, they never lost the big game.

Again, Brady while Brady deserves a lot of credit for holding together an offense without a true ‘field strecher’ or run game and masking a defense that gives up chunks of yardage on the regular he certainly wasn’t the deciding factor in the AFC Championship – however, the fact remains that he got to the big game, and has done so every other year through the course of his career. Regardless of where you stand on Brady, the Patriots, and their legacy the QB deserves a tip of the cap for a career marked by consistent achievement.

I’m in a weird place this morning. Most fans would be elated to know that they have a chance to cheer their team in the SuperBowl, it only happens so often… but, I’m a little weary this morning. A chance to knock off the Giants who robbed the Patriots of perfection at the end of the ‘07 season is compelling, but, as I wrote late last week, it is nerve wracking as well.

With that… on to the observations.

• It was clear that the Ravens were playing the pass early in this contest, and, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was ready to take advantage. It felt like there were as many holes as he needed, and he hit them all getting to the 2^nd level consistently.
• Joe Flacco started very shakey but then went on to complete 8 in a row en route to a solid 1^st half. His solid play was all that kept the Ravens tight in the first half, and, he had the game winning touchdown taken away from him in a split second by Sterling Moore. The narrative is quite a bit different today if he hangs onto that ball.
• Anquan Boldin vs. Antwaun Molden is an interesting matchup on the outside, for no reason other than the names, with Kyle Arrington out with an eye injury.
• The Ravens, for all the concerns about their passing game, picked up a 3^rd and 14 and a 3^rd and 11. Flacco picked up another 3^rd on Torrey Smith’s touchdown… that should have been a stop, but Sterling Moore failed to tackle Torrey Smith at the line.
• The Patriots had 3 chances to pick up Danny Woodhead’s kick return fumble and just let the ball bounce around on the turf.
• On Joe Flacco’s long pass to Torrey Smith in the 1^st half he rolled out to the left and had a receiver wide open. He rolled out at least 3 times the other direction and didn’t look comfortable. Some went for completions, but, it was strange to see him roll the wrong way. I’ve been on Cameron’s play calling all year, but, I don’t know why you’d call for so many passes rolling to the QB’s wrong side.
• Bernard Pollard (on another clean hit) injured another Patriot – Brady, Welker and Gronkowski as a member of 3 different teams.
• On Tom Brady’s 1st QB sneak, he was found to be a couple of inches short of the goal line, but, it was a very aware play by the #12 to go outside of the tackles with it rather than up the middle. Most would have tried to go straight up the middle and get stuffed.
• 4 catches last week for Ray Rice, 1 this week. 76 in the regular season. I do not understand Cam Cameron’s play calling.
• I was just about to write a comment complimenting Joe Flacco’s poise in this game when he threw (what should have been a game clinching) interception, its funny how quickly one game can change your perspective.
• Julian Edelman was on Anquan Boldin all day. It’s a surprising assignment, and, one that was exploited to set up the potential tying field goal.
• The Patriots needed a missed 32 yard chip shot to make it to the SuperBowl, and it’s a bit disconcerting because the offense had 2 chances to pick up a first down and/or not throw the interception with 6 minutes left and close this one out.
• Vernon Davis’ TD celebration was pretty boss. Worth the 15 yard penalty. His 15 yard penalty for roughness was unnecessary, though.
• The 49ers were lucky to get the ball back after a failed reverse/handoff from Kendall Hunter to Kyle Williams, but, calling that play on your own 30 yard line in the rain didn’t seem to bright.
• At 9:05 remaining in the first half, I’m not sure who said it, but the Fox mics clearly picked up a voice saying “Is that lady out of her Fu**king mind over there?”
• People make fun of Ed Hochuli for over-explaining things, but, I think there’s something to be said for clarity. He backs up every decision and explains it to  the fans.
• I don’t see how Vernon Davis can post 4 touchdowns in the two biggest games of the season (of his career) and only 6 all year long.
• The injury seemed to be significant, so, I don’t want to make light of it but it was pretty funny to see Dashon Goldson try to yank him up by his shirt, so as to a) help him out or more likely b) make himself look better for creaming a defenseless player/costing his team a pick.
• It’s a tough play to get right on the field for the officials, but, on the challenge the ball clearly hits Kyle Williams on the knee. Instead of a clear touchdown (letting it play out rather than blowing it dead, and adjusting with the automatic replay) the Giants began their possession at the 30. Sidenote: The 49ers missed Ted Ginn Jr. in this one, not just on this play, but, in the field position game all day.
• The 49ers completed 0 third down conversions, and 0 passes to wide receivers. Well, 1 completion to wide receiver as I typed that… on yet another failed 3^rd down conversion.
• In the end, the 49ers got this far by winning the turnover battle consistently. Today, they lost it, and, that was the story.
• I want a promise for next season: let’s not call for Tom Coughlin’s job. Just weeks ago people were on the fire him bandwagon, and, much like in 2007 Coughlin has gotten the most out of his team at the right time and they are on their way to the big game.

3 of 4 weeks in the book and Mr. Consistent Marc holds down the top spot (by a narrow margin) heading into the SuperBowl. Weekly winners in blue.

	Team	Wild Card	Divisional	Champ	Total
1	Marc	200	221.14	146	567.14
2	Checkdown	183.56	233.68	144.4	561.64
3	Means	177.92	231.88	130.9	540.7
4	NPI	189.96	202.28	137.5	529.74
5	Ryan	168.52	217.98	141.4	527.9
6	WC3	170.82	222.48	127.9	521.2
7	MattyIce	188.7	0		188.7
8	BBB	182.72	0		182.72

I really have no context for this post, and, I suppose I should be impressed with how Eli hung in against a ferocious 49ers pass rush late in the game, but, I really just want to share this picture with you.

Enjoy.