Checkdown Chatter

A lot of things had to go right for the Saints to win last night, and a lot did. They all started with coach Sean Payton and his determined playcalling. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Drew Brees played a great – if not flawless – game on Sunday, completing his final 10 passes, and throwing only a handful of incompletions while completing a (tied for) Super Bowl record 32 passes. There is little doubt that he was integral to New Orleans’ victory and he definitely deserves his Super Bowl MVP trophy.

But, I think it has to be said that if coaches could be considered, Payton with an A would be in the running. Earlier this season I dropped a ‘play the game for real’ tag on Bill Belichick for his brazen, like he’s just playing Madden where punting/kicking/play calling is unnecesseary, I’ve got to commend Payton for doing the same – and for getting away with it.

Look at the end of the first half where Payton showed guts and belief in his team by going for a (failed) 4th down try for a touchdown to tie the game. The playcall was gutsy, and didn’t work out, but the clock management that followed – waiting for the 1st timeout which ensured the Colts didn’t have time to march down the field and would necessarily just try to run out the clock, which caused their 3 and out, and the resulting pre-half field goal was a thing of beauty. A lot of that was defensive execution and precision passing/clutch kicking, but give Payton and the staff credit for managing the sitaution – at least after the failed 4th down plunge – admirably… even the playcall after spending the last timeout to ensure the clock would run out on the 4th down field goal try was impressive – and it took Stones.

(Take note, there would later be a converted 4th and 2 around midfield that evoked the comment: Somewhere Bill Belichick is rolling in his 2009 football grave).

Then, following the momentum built on the last play of the half the Saints came out at halftime and converted a successful onside kick. Frankly, as much as Porter’s pick 6 or the impressive passing run Brees went on to close this game out, this is the play that won the game. We’re looking at an entirely different ball game if New Orleans throws it deep and Indianapolis marches the field and even knocks in a field goal (an all but foregone conclusion the way they were moving the ball early in this one). The gang at PFT and the players involved agree.

If that kick fails, there is probably public outcry… but, it didn’t. It took guts, and with guts come glory.

While the Colts won't be hanging the above jersey from the rafters any time soon, there is something to be said for his participation in the closing game's of the season. A rested Manning looked just fine against a Ravens defense that severely hampered Tom Brady the week before.

In the weeks leading up to the close of the season, especially in the case of the then undefeated Colts, I was dead against teams resting their starters and throwing games heading into the playoffs.

I’m still against it, but through the first 6 games of the NFL playoffs the Colts and Saints, the two top seeds in their respective conference for a reason, who were riding a combined 5 game losing streak have made their cases for it.

In their romp over the Cardinals the Saints showed all our fears about momentum (especially since they’ve locked up home field advantage – and that dome seems pretty advantageous to play in) and their struggles heading into the playoffs meant nothing. They are a strong team, with a solid core of players and a great coach.

The same can be said of the Colts, who gave up a shot at history to ensure their health. They handled a Ravens team, that looked after last week like they could present a real challenge, easily.

The big exclamation mark on this: the teams that they played had to play their way in (well, the Cardinals rested week 17 and made their own point on that note against the Packers last week… but they’d been playing hard leading up to that game, and had to really fight to get the week in the wild card round) and were fighting injuries.

Baltimore had their quarterback suffer an injury in the last game of the season… he got away with not being 100% last week, but was exposed this week by the Colts.

The Cardinals, without Boldin and losing some key names on defense through the game (the argument can be made that the exhaustion of last week’s battle did them in) were clearly an inferior team this week.

New Orleans and Indy were as healthy and rested as they could be, and their offenses didn’t miss a beat after dialing it down a notch as the season closed out. Most importantly, their defenses excelled.

New Orleans harassed Kurt Warner and allowed juts 14 points and no touchdown passes just one game after this same offense hung 45 points on the league’s #2 ranked D.

Baltimore had seriously exposed New England the week before and Indy’s run defense was suspect at best. I guess Ray Rice (who played admirably and had a great season, mind you) and the ground game didn’t get the memo.

Last week we watched New England suffer without its top possession receiver, Welker lost in the season’s last game, against the Ravens. And again, Arizona made its point emphatically (on offense anyway) against the Packers by being able to predict their defensive set up from watching them the week before.

I’m not saying I agree with resting starters, or disagree with the importance of momentum (see the Dallas Cowboys win over the Eagles last week… and perhaps more to discuss later this afternoon), but I am admitting the proponents of that point of view are gaining some evidence as the playoffs roll on.

New Orleans continues its drive towards perfection, but can they reasonably be expected to march out of SuperBowl 45 undefeated champs?

There are plenty of answers to this one, as the ‘perfect season’ is a near impossible feat – in the 45 year history of the SuperBowl we’ve witnessed only one team accomplish such greatness (and one team miss by about 30 seconds) but, there is one obvious reason that everyone seems to be overlooking as the Saints march on in their search for perfection.

The remaining schedule is pretty friendly (only Dallas next week has a winning record), so its not an aggregious assumption that New Orleans will make it through the season unscathed (though Dallas will certainly be hungry next week, and with only meaningless games left for Carolina and Tampa they most certainly will muster some extra effort at the chance to derail a division rivals path to perfection), but I think New Orleans has legitimate reason to be concerned once the playoffs roll around.

Their defense, though it has been making headlines – deservedly – for its playmaking ability is not championship calibre. They have 24 interceptions, and seem to have the ability to turn a game on its head at any moment, but this defense lets bad teams hang around far too long. The offense, thus far, has done a great job at finding a way to win but playoff quality teams won’t make the same mistakes that the Redskins and Falcons have in recent weeks which have allowed New Orleans to sneak out with a win.

Lets look at the D:

• They have an impressive 8 defensive touchdowns, and this is a fact that can certainly help them come playoff time, no knocks here.
• They also have 24 interceptions, which is pretty close to two a game. Obviously, when you have a powerful offense winning the turnover battle goes a long way to winning games and the Saints D does a good job here.
• They rank 21st in total defense (yards per game) and are in the middle of the pack in scoring defense.
• They are 23rd in passing defense – while this can be explained in part by the leads they have often held and the nature of the games they are playing, you would still like to see your championship team a lot higher.
• They are 19th in Run D and allow a very unimpressive 4.4 YPC. This takes away any argument from above. If bad pass D can be explained by teams passing too much, you’d expect them to be ranked pretty well in run defense YPG.

As a result of this, bad teams have been able to hang with the Saints. Looking at upcoming playoff matchups vs. any combination of Minnesota, Arizona, Philladelphia, Green Bay and Dallas/NYG (well, maybe not the 6th wildcard team – neither of these guys impress, really… though, to the Giants credit they, their offense anyway, deserved to win the Eagles game last night) its hard to imagine New Orleans getting away with quality defense against that calibre of opponent. Then, having to face say Indy, San Diego or whomever in the SuperBowl should they be fortunate enough.

Their playoff opponents will have 16 games of footage to go through when planning to take on the Saints, 16 games of defensive miscues that have allowed their recent schedule to compete, one opposing coach will be able to gameplan his team past the Saints.

The offense is great, but the defense isn’t built for perfection.

Since week 8 the Saints have faced 1 team that currently has a  winning record. Granted, it was a previously assumed strong Patriots team that the Saints manhandled on Monday Night, but otherwise they’ve had 2 games against Atlanta (one without their franchise QB and RB) where they won by a collective 11 points, a 5 point win over St. Louis, a 3 points win in OT against Washington and a couple of decent games against Tampa and Carolina. They’ve won them all, to their credit, which is extremely hard to do even against weak opponents, but I expect more from a perfect team.

I’m not sure who the upset will come from, but I think we can expect it in due time.

Unlike the sad QB pictured below, Jake Delhomme has every reason to be bummed.

Following yesterday’s loss to the Jets where the Panthers offense once again let down a superb effort by the Panthers D there was some discussion of John Fox making ’some changes’ on offense.

The good news for Fox, is that Jake Delhomme has a broken finger. Hardly a career threatening injury, but it does give Fox an excuse to take a look at Matt Moore.

Things can’t possibly get worse on the offense in Carolina. DeAngelo Williams was ineffective against the Jets, but should bounce back. The Panthers will still be a run based team with Moore in the game, and the change will hopefully mean they are able to hold onto the ball longer, which should mean good things for Williams’ in terms of production levels. It should mean good news for Steve Smith as well, as I said, he can’t possibly be less effective than Delhomme.

It’s hard to bench the 42.5 million dollar man (by contrast Moore makes $460,000 this season), but its equally hard to watch him play at this point.

… sit down, Foxy, this may be hard to hear…

As an owner who is heavily invested in DeAngelo Williams in fantasy this year, I’m a bit biased, I’ll admit that going in, but I just don’t understand what is going on in Carolina.

I’m sure going into games the Panthers are wise enough to plan to limit throwing opportunities and turn the ball over to the rush attack. What I don’t understand is that the second they start trailing, the Panthers try to act like their in a 2 minute drill – even with 20 minutes of game left.

Delhomme threw the ball 42 times last night against Miami. 42 times! His performance wasn’t atrocious (though he completed less than half of his attempts) but his lone interception came at an absolutely crushing time – and a time when the Panthers should have been rushing the ball.

DeAngelo Williams was rushing the ball at will last night against one of the league’s top Rush defenses. His 9.4 YPC were more than 2.5 times what the Dolphins had been giving up all year – even if you factor out his 50 yard run (which should have led to a touchdown, or at the very least a field goal to make the game a one score affair WITH 25 MINUTES OF CLOCK TIME LEFT) he still carried 12 times for 72 – a 6.0 average. My question – what was Delhomme doing tossing it up on a very manageable 3rd and 3. Stewart had just carried twice for 7- bring in DeAngelo rush again, or have Delhomme try to pick up three with a pass to his tight end, not heave it to the end zone for Steve Smith. Yes, tha Panthers have to take chances, but not to the point of sacrificing gimme points that they desperately needed.

From that point on, the Panthers began desperately passing the ball. When Delhomme is asked to throw more than 30 passes in a game the Panthers win less than 33% of the time. Obviously, part of that stat has to do with the fact that when he throws a bunch of passes, they are already trailing – but how does it make sense to over use him knowing this fact?

Williams was running the ball successfully in every possible context last night, up the gut, bouncing to the outside, breaking tackles, making something of nothing. The result of the skill he displayed? 13 measley carries. Jonathan Stewart, who struggled last night, at least in comparison to Williams and although he has posted some good numbers this season has been way too inconsistent compared to the veteran back – had 12. With 1 extra carry Williams outgained him by 79 yards, yet the Panthers kept handing him the rock.

If the Panthers continue to take the ball out of the hands of their top producer, be it via a focus on the pass game, or giving the ball to the wrong back, they cannot be succesful. Its plain to me, and I’m not the only observer thinking so – yet the Panthers play calling goes the opposite direction. Someone on the coaching staff needs to figure it out, however, it looks like its too late for the Panthers in ‘09.

On the flip side: Kudos to the Dolphins for knowing exactly how to get the most out of Ricky Williams after losing Brown for the season.

Sideline scuffle costs Smith. (Photo courtesy of AJC)

While it doesn’t come as a surprise that the league decided to take disciplinary action following last week’s sideline fracas during the Falcons/Redskins game I’ve got some issues with the decision. I’ll admit that I don’t know all the facts, but to the common observer there are a few discrepancies…

For starters: Mike Smith gets fined 15K while DeAngelo Hall walks away scott free. The league should hold its coaches, whom are technically responsible for keeping their players well behaved to a higher standard, so I get the fine of Smith, and I even get that it was a larger sum than the two players who were actually fined in the incident. But it doesn’t make sense to me how Hall, who has a history of ‘misbehavior’ and seemed to be just as heated/involved walks away clean. Hall, of course, knew it all along – according to his twitter account he’s been keeping his nose clean and staying out of trouble.

Perhaps more troubling: with the admission that coaches need to be held to a higher standard the league is continuing to let Tom Cable get away without discipline, despite the fact that while Smith may have said some hurtful things, he didn’t actually break someone’s jaw (nor was he accused of abusing women). Smith is fined immediately, while they hum and haw over disciplining Cable from an incident months ago. I guess the NFL doesn’t play by ’sticks and stones’ rules, which is funny because you’ll recall they let Jerry Jones get away with my other favourite school yard mantra ‘do over’ when deciding how to deal with a punt that hits the big screen.

Interesting article over at shutdown corner profiling the Falcons Defense inside the Red Zone.

Sounds like bad news for the Cowboys who tend to look lost inside the opponent’s 20.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Sunday-Spotlight-Atlanta-s-red-zone-defense?urn=nfl,198013