Checkdown Chatter

It’s Tuesday of Pro-Bowl week – the new and improved pre-SuperBowl version – and people are pulling out of the game like they just found out it was off the pill.

The change in the date of the game naturally means that the players from the two ‘best’ teams won’t be included, I get that, as do fan voters and I think it was a necessary sacrifice, but it would be nice if this years game included at least most of the remaining stars.

The NFL knew it was going to take away some of the draw for players to participate by taking the game away from Hawaii, but the benefits, at least on paper were enough to outweigh that.

Most importantly from my perspective, a game this week means I still care about football while its taking place. That’s a plus, from a viewer-ship perspective. It’s not that I suddenly forget about football the Monday after the SuperBowl but its fair to say that anything that comes after the culmination of a season’s worth of efforts is a bit of a denouement. So, in my opinion, if we had everyone involved in the all star game, this new system would work great. Also, in theory, if the game was interesting enough to talk about it would take away from 2 weeks worth of Favre watch and who is Archie Manning rooting for discussion… instead, we’re all blogging about who is not playing in the game, not who is.

I guess the moral of the story here is that the NFL knows there is a problem with the Pro Bowl, and they’re trying to fix it. The problem of keeping us all interested remains, though… at least Goodell and the gang know there’s a problem, but this solution isn’t going to cut it.

Some of the replacements are good stories/deserving participants. Vincent Jackson had a breakout year in the AFC, Matt Schaub earned his spot, and OchoCinco’s resurgence was noteworthy enough, but looking at the AFC offense there are 8 replacement players, and 15 original players, that’s a 33% replacement rate. In the NFC there are 11 offensive replacement players.

Neither roster, in its entirety, resembles anything like what the stakeholders decided was the cream of the crop this year, which is a shame for the fans. But, lets let the game play out, and see how it goes. I think the new format has promise, and as I said – at least the NFL acknowledges the flaws in its showcase of stars.

It was a pretty sweet gimmick to begin with, but Revis Island has gone to a new level.

With New York City, as it always seems to do, rallying behind its team as it strives for playoff glory Mayor Mike Bloomberg renamed Manhattan Revis Island. As far as lame playoff gimmicks go, this one is pretty good, at least its fun.

As they point out at PFT, its nice that a cornerback is getting this kind of recognition – its been hard to ignore Revis’ contributions all year, and with the Jets making playoff waves thanks in no small part to their defensive prominence, he’s making headlines.

The great season won’t be forgotten any time soon, as Revis has emerged into (if not a no doubter) one of the top cover corner’s in the league, and he’ll be around playing the role of shutdown corner for years to come, but all will be for naught, at least as far as the outcome of the 2009 season is concerned if he can’t continue his dominance against Reggie Wayne and the Colts this weekend.

He was able to shut Wayne down in their Week 16 contest, but of course, that game marked the beginning of the end for the Colts’ perfect season and the now infamous Paintergate of 2009 which is a big reason the Jets even got this far. It will all be on the table in the Conference Championship and if anyone can break out of Revis Island it will be Wayne. (Although, Kurt Russell/Snake Plissken did a great job 30 years ago in Revis Islands’ more traditional namesake).

Update: The coverage of the Jets’ conference game appearance just keeps getting better.

For starters, I saw a whole flurry of posting after Week 17 about what the NFL can do to avoid repeat games from Week 17 to Wild Card week moving forward. Personally, I think its interesting. If anything, it adds some intrigue. You have coaches employing different game plans, showing a lot, showing a little, players involved at different levels of time and intensity, and you’ve also got some rivalries/changes of venue/etc. to build up during the week. While the games last week were all blowouts, I don’t think there are any this week without intrigue.

All of the matchups feature one team that lost last week and one team that won, so, it can be argued that four teams have momentum coming in, and the other four need a quick turnaround. One thing is certain: the Eagles, Cardinals and Bengals must be pretty happy its not soccer and/or aggregate scoring.

The question is, after watching the 3 losing teams do so last week in lopsided fashion, who has the strength to turn their fortunes around this week.

Arizona vs. Green Bay

Last week the Packers throttled the Cardinals in a game where the two teams employed vastly different strategies. Both teams chose to rest key players, but Green Bay’s remained in the game much longer – and while there ‘put it all in the table’ (or maybe that’s what they want Whisenhunt et. al to believe) whereas the Cardinals had Kurt Warner take a handful of snaps and then rotated him out. Interestingly: Anquan Boldin managed to hurt his wobbly ankle, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie suffered an apparent injury as well. Larry Fitzgerald played just about the whole game, surprisingly.

The consensus is that Boldin probably won’t play (or at least, he won’t last the whole game), and DRC will be at less than full speed.

The verdict: Can the Cardinals overcome last week’s blowout. In the sense that, the game wasn’t really indicative of the team’s abilities, then yes, I think the Cardinals can come up with a much more aggressive gameplan, and compete. There’s also last year’s playoff run, and specifically Larry Fitzgerald’s playoff dominance to consider. The Cardinals can threaten this week.

But, injuries to key players – and this graphic:

… coupled with Aaron Rodgers’ impressive season suggest that the Packers should be able to add another notch to the win column this week.

New York vs. Cincinnati

Anyone watching last week would not have believed the Bengals were the playoff bound team, and the Jets were the team that needed a huge amount of assistance to get in, after Week 15. Two weeks later and things look a lot different in this AFC matchup. Many, myself included, felt kind of cheated that the Jets were going to sneak into the playoffs after facing an Indy team that rolled over for them in Week 16 and a Bengals squad in a similar ‘game of no consequence’ position.

The Bengals did give a few starters on both sides of the ball the night off, and their game plan was pretty pedestrian, but no one can say that the Jets didn’t earn their spot – at least in Week 17, say nothing of the 15 previous games – in this weekend’s playdown. The Jets offense played a fairly mistake free game, and pounded in a couple scores on their ground, as is a style that fits the team, and last week’s weather conditions perfectly. Their offense was just fine, and their defense won them the game.

Revis voted another resident (even if it was a semi-injured OchoCinco) onto the island, and the Bengals were held to 72 net yards. 72! By way of comparison Brad Smith, at best used as a gadget trick right now for the Jets, picked up 57 yards on a single play. That’s one decent run away from the Bengals entire night.

This was a thoroughly underwhelming performance and the Bengals will need to see real improvement this week to keep a blowout from happening again.

The Verdict: With this game shifting to Cincinnati, Cedric Benson back in the mix – and rested, as the plowshare and the defense much healthier I think the Bengals have a shot. Mark Sanchez has responded pretty well to his reduced roll as offensive catalyst, and the Jets run game has picked up the slack. However, this team will now be facing a nearly fully staffed – impressive run D with two top cover corners on their home turf. Add to that they are facing a rookie QB who has been known to show his greenness (in a way fans of the Broadway Green would not approve) and New York’s offense could be up for a long day. Their defense will give them a chance to win the game, no doubt, but I think the Bengals bounce back.

Eagles vs. Cowboys

The difference between this game is that there is no way the Eagles can explain their poor performance away by saying they weren’t giving it their all. The starters played the whole game, and the 2nd seed (they’re now 6th) in the NFC was on the line, and the Eagles got beaten from pillar to post. It’s one thing for a team to lose momentum from resting its stars, and quite another for a team to get shut out and beaten badly on defense in a must win game. Romo continued his late season dominance, and the team nearly got 100 yards out of two backs, after watching its run game struggle early in December. The Cowboys proved last Sunday that they are moving in the right direction.

Not only does Philly have to make some serious changes this week to become competitive, they have to march back into the scene of the crime and try to beat Dallas on their home turf, in front of jumbotronicus.

The Verdict: It’s not happenin’. The Cowboys beat the Eagles last week in every facet of the game – and I don’t think its possible for the Eagles to overhaul their system this week, even if they are desperate for the win. They’ll have to count on a Cowboy implosion, as much as their own success. That’s been known to happen to these Cowboys in the playoffs, but I don’t think this year… not this round anyway.

Ravens vs. Patriots

We may as well briefly discuss the only other action this week in closing. While not a repeat, the Patriots have some definite mental and personnel problems to overcome after the loss of Wes Welker last week. The Patriots are capable though, and provided they can keep everyone on the field against Baltimore’s physical defense, they should survive the week. I’m tired of everyone comparing Edelman to Welker, he doesn’t measure up… but, he is a capable possession receiver, and provided Moss’ non-injury related missing of practice isn’t code for he’s hobbled as some are implying, the Patriots will prevail at home.

Really, we’ve got to consider ourselves pretty fortunate. There is still a lot of relevant football to be played in Week 17. Lots of interesting position battles in the NFC, some potential first round previews (Cincinnati/New York, Green Bay/Arizona, Dallas/Philly), some single season marks up for grabs, and a wide open AFC wild card picture.

It should be a good Sunday for football fans. Some coaches, naturally, are depriving us of their star players in an effort to rest them for the playoffs, fair enough. It makes for some dull matchups, and has some intriguing playoff ramifications, but its been done for years and is a part of the physically demanding game these players are involved in.

This is the first time in my memory, however, that I remember a coach ‘resting’ his stars in an effort to keep his team out of the playoffs.

I’ve already covered Denver’s meltdown, and most football fans know the story pretty well, they were undefeated at 6-0 with some impressive victories along the way, Josh McDaneils made some tough, gutsy personnel decisions (at the time they were ridiculed, at 6-0 they were ingenious, and now at 8-7 no one really knows what to think). Not to be outdone, McDaneils is back to his old tricks, alienating his stars, and seemingly costing his team a shot at the playoffs.

Now, the Broncos need some combination of skill, help and luck to get into the playoffs (all they had to do was win 4 of their last 10 games to guarantee it) and odds are, its probably not going to happen. But as a coach, even with an outside chance, you’d like to see him try.

This season in Denver Kyle Orton has morphed into a surprisingly adequate quarterback. With 20 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions and an 89.3 quarterback rating that hovers right around the middle of the league, no one can argue that Orton is costing his team games like they would when he is in Chicago… or like they’ve been doing about his predecessor Jay Cutler this season… but, a large part of that is the weapons he has at his disposal.

Say what you want about his attitude and off field issues Brandon Marshall is an elite receiver, and he has been there all season as Orton’s number one option. Never more apparent than in his effort against one of the top cover corner’s in the league in Oakland (a loss against a very beatable team in a very winnable game, mind you) and of course in his 21 reception effort against the Colts. Brandon Marshall IS the Denver Broncos receiving corps.

I’m not in the locker room, and I don’t profess to know what is transpiring, or what kind of a distraction Marshall is. I also don’t know the extent of his injury, and whether he could have practiced a little harder this week. I do know, that as a professional football player, Marshall must want to be in the playoffs, and would want to play a hand in his team getting there. He’d have been on the field on Sunday, and it was McDaniel’s job to get him there, not take him away.

In 15 games this season Marshall has hit some pretty significant milestones: 100+ catches (2nd in NFL), 1000+ yards (T11th) and 10+ TDs (T5th), he’s not having an all time season, but those numbers are good enough to rank him near the top of the league in every category.

Look what happened in New England this year, how the team rallied around Randy Moss after media/opponent/presumable internal scrutiny, and he’s had 4 TDs in 2 games since. Belichick (McDaniels’ mentor, if you recall) sent Moss home, and I’m sure words were exchanged, but they repaired the damage on got him back on the field.

So, McDaniels followed up the dismissal of Tony Scheffler (30 catches, 400 or so yards and a couple of scores) the loss to injury of Eddie Royal (an off year to be sure, but still a dangerous weapon in the receiving and return games) with the suspension of Marshall. Can the Broncos still beat the Chiefs? Maybe, but it sure looks like coach McD is looking ahead to 2010 and waving the white flag on this season.

The depleted receiving corps will looks to Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley, plus some guy off the practice squad you’ve never heard of, to pick up the slack. I’ve always thought of Stokley as a decent enough player, but he’s not a leading receiver – not even close, and while Gaffney is having one of, if not arguably the best, statistical season of his career he’s nothing to be excited over. Their combined 54 catches and 800 yards have me wondering how Kyle Orton is going to look with no one to throw to (wasn’t that his biggest problem in Chicago?).

I realize Shanahan did just as good a job in recent years of letting his team fall apart at the end of the season, but at least he had his players on the field.

The website firejoshmcdanielsnow.com (admittedly, there slant might be a little biased) makes some interesting points about McDaniels’ management style.

Colts vs. Jaguars: Jags don’t pose much opposition to Colts drive for perfection. At least, I don’t think so…

Cowboys vs. Saints: Perhaps the ‘Boys pose a little more opposition to the Saints, but, just have a look at your calendar…

Bears vs. Ravens: A stronger (slightly) opponent this week for Ravens, but pick-happy Cutler facing the wrong secondary.

Patriots vs. Bills: Patriots should help division record with a win. Betcha Moss gets lots of attention from Brady this week.

Cardinals vs. Lions: Perfect game on the slate for Cards to right what was wrong last week.

Texans vs. Rams: Regardless of who is running the ball in Houston, Schaub leads an impressive pass attack into St. Louis.

Dolphins vs. Titans: Gotta pick the Titans to get to .500 – the road to 9-7 continues to get tougher, though.

Browns vs. Chiefs: Cleveland should put together 3rd straight solid outing, Charles will have a field day, in the meantime.

Falcons vs. Jets: Atlanta fighting to get to 7-7. Pass attack hasn’t looked great under Redman, but serviceable… was serviceable at best with Ryan in recent weeks. Tough going in the air this week, regardless.

49ers vs. Eagles: Can 49ers get back to basics and build off last weeks strong defensive/rush first attack?

Raiders vs. Broncos: You know its bad for Jamarcus when fellow discarded QB Charlie Frye gets the nod.

Bengals vs. Chargers: Cincinnati mourning the loss of Chris Henry (RIP) may have a hard time getting emotionally up to speed for tough conference matchup.

Packers vs. Steelers: Would be hard to pick the Steelers to beat a paper bag right now. Let alone a surging Green Bay team.

Buccaneers vs. Seahawks: I’ve already asked this once this week: but when does some of the blame shift to Matt Hasslebeck in Seattle? He’s got a shot to put together a decent game this week… so do RBs Jones and Forsett.

Vikings vs. Panthers: Without 2 starting tackles can DeAngelo keep up with All Day? Can the Panthers outpass your grandfather, let alone the best grandad in the NFL?

Giants vs. Redskins: New York needs this game to stay in the hunt. Division win would be a boost, but Washington scoring points with abandon of late.

Busy week, so you won’t get any previews before the week 14 games, just my picks… and a few lines on some of the games, if you’re lucky.

Steelers vs. Browns: While its actually possible to envision the Steelers losing to the 1-11 Browns, I think coach Mike will have done a sufficient job riling up the troops this week.

 

 

 

Saints vs. Falcons

 

 

 

Lions vs. Ravens

 

 

Packers vs. Bears: Back in the preseason we’d have predicted this matchup to at least mean something to the NFC North.

 

 

Seahawks vs. Texans

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Colts: Denver is really the only legitimate obstacle to 16-0.

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Jaguars: Couple of teams in the playoff race, neither of them exciting, but I can’t bring myself to bet on Jacksonville.

 

 

 

Bills vs. Chiefs

Bengals vs. Vikings: Homefield advantage and desire to prove last week was a fluke looks good for Vikes.

 

 

 

Panthers vs. Patriots: New England had better right the ship this week if they want any faith restored.

  

  

  

Jets vs. Buccaneers: Could almost pick the Bucs if it weren’t for Freeman vs. Pass D

 

 

 

Rams vs. Titans: Titans won’t get to 10-6 but we’d have to be impressed with them on the road to 8-8.

 

 

 

 

Redskins vs. Raiders: Both teams played tough teams well in Week 13. The difference: Oakland didn’t give it away.

Chargers vs. Cowboys: Loss could spell big trouble for the ‘Boys. Chargers coming to town at the wrong time.

 

Eagles vs. Giants: Logic points to Eagles, but I still haven’t been impressed by the Eagles. … so you beat an undermanned offense and poor defense last week. Who cares?

 

 

 

Cardinals vs. 49ers: Singletary’s team circled this day on the calendar months ago. 9-3 vs. 4-8 wasn’t their goal; I doubt.

The Thursday night game is apathetically in my hometown tonight, and in an effort to pay homage, I’m apathetically posting my picks and previews pretty close to deadline.

Week 13 Featured Games

Titans vs. Colts

Overview: It’s not often you’ll find me hyping up a 5-6 vs. 11-0 matchup, but this has game of the week written all over it. The prospect of two teams going 16-0 seems very unlikely, and this might be the week where the Colts get their comeuppance (though we’ve been saying that for a while, and they continue to find a way to win). The Titans resurgent offense (averaging 29 points per game over the 5 weeks since their bye as compared to the Colts 25 during that span) will have to do lots of scoring to keep up with Manning and the gang. They Colts don’t defend the run all that well though, so Chris Johnson will likely be able to move the chains, as he has all season, and keep the Titans in it. The Titans are essentially playing single game elimination from here on out, and will need a huge win against the Colts to keep their season afloat.

Key Players: We know all the usual suspects here, but Vince Young may be the biggest key to his team’s outcome. Last week he showed poise and precision when moving the Titans up the field on their 99 yard game winning drive. He’s going to have to accomplish a lot, however, to keep up with Peyton and the boys, and Chris Johnson won’t be able to carry the load all himself. Most importantly, Young will have to do a good job of protecting the football – we all saw what happened to the Texans’ hopes with the success the Colts had in taking the ball from them in the 2nd half last week.

Pick: Colts (every part of me wants to pull for the Titans, but…)

Cowboys vs. Giants

Overview: The Cowboys have a shot to a) make it a two team race in the NFC East and b) at the very least solidify a playoff position by knocking the Giants further down the wild card ladder this week. While you’d think that wouldn’t be a daunting task against a Giants team that has been erratic and mustered only 6 points against Denver last week, you’ll remember that Dallas only scored 7 the week before in a narrow victory over the Redskins. It’s time for someone to step up in the NFC East and with this the first of several interdivision games in the week to come, these two teams get their chance to prove it this week. The Giants run game is not where it used to be, and the Cowboys defend the run pretty well. Knowing this, it could be a long day for Eli in the pocket.

Key Players: Miles Austin came back in a big way against an impressive Raiders pass D on thanksgiving, and its clear that he is one of the most important pieces of the Cowboys offense. If they continue to find success moving him around the field and working on getting different looks from the defense, they should be able to move the ball and are a threat to score on any play. We’ve mentioned the Giants struggles against the run, and Marion Barber et. al have struggled rushing the football as well at times. They’ve looked quite a bit better in recent weeks and will need to find success against a respectable (11th in YPG allowed) Giants run D this week in order to give Romo a shot to find his receivers downfield.

Vikings vs. Cardinals

Overview: While the Cardinals will most likely cruise into the playoffs even after dropping last weeks contest in the last minute against the Titans, they know they let an important game slip away and are out to make a statement against the powerful Vikes. Keep an eye on Kurt Warner leading up to Sunday night, this is a MUCH different team when he’s able to go. Much like the grizzled QB on the other side of the ball, Favre has posted an MVP-like season making the most of the players around him – this team is NOT a 10-1 football team without him. If we’re lucky, we’ll witness two ageless wonders letting the ball rip against one another on Sunday night.

Key Players: Though both offenses have had a lot of success passing the football, the run games are points of interest this week. Everyone knows Adrian Peterson is a top tier NFL running back, but he’s had serious issues protecting the ball, and against the Cardinals a mistake like that can kill you. On the other side, Arizona’s run game has found a way to be productive recently, but faces a difficult task against a mighty Vikings d-line. If they can’t break through consistently the Vikings will be able to pressure either a shaken up Kurt Warner or an inexperienced Matt Leinart, and either situation could cause them significant problems. Darnell Dockett had 3 sacks for the Cards last week, and Jared Allen is my off-the-top-of-my-head pick for defensive MVP – whomever is able to exhibit a stronger pass rush this week will go a long way to helping their team’s chances.

Pick: Vikings

Ravens vs. Packers

Overview: With each team in the hunt for a wildcard spot in their respective conferences (the Packers in better position than the 6-5 Ravens, however) this game has big meaning for both teams. The Ravens are shoring up on defense as they make their playoff push (11.7 ppg in November) while the Packers are relying on an offense led by the strong play of QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite its strong play the Ravens D made Dennis Dixon look pretty capable at points (or he made them look silly a couple of times) and Rodgers is playing like a much more polished quarterback, so the Ravens D will have to bring the pressure against a Packers o-line that has been coming together of late. This is a Monday Night game for the Packers at Lambeau in December,and although the Ravens should be ok to handle the cold, you’ve still got to figure there is a home field advantage for the Pack.

Key Players: Ray Rice has performed in just about every matchup this season and draws a really strong Packers run D (4th in YPG, 3.6 YPC) this week. He’ll likely have to make his impact as a receiver, but has had little trouble in that role this season. Last week Joe Flacco avoided throwing interceptions, while Dixon tossed a crucial pick in overtime. He’ll have to work on hitting his receivers, while limiting mistakes (Mason has played well of late, and Clayton appears to have awoken from his slumber last week) to help the Ravens move the ball down field and open up some running lanes for Ray Rice.

Pick: Packers

Week 13 Picks

Jets vs. Bills

Eagles vs. Falcons

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

Rams vs. Bears

Lions vs. Bengals

Texans vs. Jaguars

Broncos vs. Chiefs

Patriots vs. Dolphins

Raiders vs. Steelers

Saints vs. Redskins

Chargers vs. Browns

49ers vs. Seahawks

Happy (American) Turkey Day, while you’re watching the games, I’m at work… sneaking time to get my picks in before noon kickoff. Enjoy.

Week 12 Featured Games

Cardinals vs. Titans

Overview: The Cardinals have been on an impressive ‘run’ of late as their defense is playing a ‘bend not break’ game and the offense is in full force with the passing game as efficient as ever (forget the semi-recent 6 turnover performance) and the rush attack led by impressive displays from both Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells has them moving the ball extremely well. The Titans have been moving the ball with increasing efficiency as well. Monday night’s victory against the Texans was their fourth straight, and preserves the suggestion that the Titans could run the table from here out and sneak in the backdoor of the AFC playoffs. Of course, starting this week with the Cardinals and with matchups to come against Indy and San Diego, the road is only going to get more difficult.

Key Players: Vince Young has done a great job in working with his limited game plan and has made all the plays he has had to to help the Titans win. He’s also shown that he still has the mobility in and out of the pocket that makes him such a dangerous player. Young will need to be consistent against an sometimes scary Arizona pass defense in order to open holes for Chris Johnson as he continues his march towards 2000 rushing yards. The Cardinals should be able to find success throwing the ball against a newly healthy Titans pass defense, but they will need strong games from Wells or Hightower (preferably both) to help them control the clock and get out in front. If the Cardinals can build a lead early it should limit Johnson’s opportunities to run the ball in the 2nd half which will keep Every Coaches Dream from taking the game over.

Pick:

(but the Titans might just find a way…)

Steelers vs. Ravens

Overview: Both teams suffered last minute heartbreakers in week 11. The difference was: the Ravens competed in a game everyone expected them to lose, meanwhile the Steelers couldn’t put the Chiefs away in a game that everyone expected them to win. Now, while both teams are still in the thick of the AFC wild card chase, they will have to rebound quickly. Pittsburgh won all three times they faced the Ravens last season (including a victory in the AFC Championship game) and the Ravens will need to change that this week (and again later this season) if they hope to pass their division rivals in the AFC playoff race. The Steelers hold an edge on the defensive side of the ball, even with their injury woes (Polamalu missed practice on Wednesday) they have been dominant against the run, the Ravens will need to find success in the run game and with quick effective passes to take some pressure of Joe Flacco.

Key Players: Ray Rice has been essential to Baltimore’s success this year, and they need to find a way to get him space as a runner and receiver against the league’s top run D. Ben Roethlisberger is practicing this week and is expected to play despite sustaining a concussion in Week 11’s extra frame. Both quarterback’s are key to their team’s success, and perhaps more importantly the opponents pass rush will determine their fate. Joe Flacco has looked frazzled of late, and didn’t perform his best facing pressure from Pittsburgh last season. If the Ravens pass D is able to consistently harass Roethlisberger it may make him uncomfortable in the pocket and force some bad throws – or it may force Dennis Dixon into the game.

Pick:

Patriots vs. Saints

Overview: The Saints face their toughest test on the road to 16-0 this week against the Patriots, and while the Pats failed to stop Indy’s perfect season from rolling on, you can bet that the only team in NFL history to have a 16-0 regular season will come to play in New Orleans. While New Orleans is all but guaranteed a first round bye in the NFC New England has a lot to play for – and a lot to prove this week. A win over the 10-0 Saints could be a significant momentum builder late in the season. The Saints had better hope to get healthy in the secondary, or acclimate their new aquisitions at cornerback quickly if they hope to slow down a Patriots offense that has had no trouble moving the ball this season and is finding its steam of late. For all the talk of the Saints offensive prowess the Patriots trail them by only 4 total yards per game, and hold a 35 yard edge in defense yardage allowed. The Saints, however, have been much more efficient running the ball and may need to turn to the rush attack against a 6th ranked Patriots pass defense.

Key Players: Lets not kid ourselves, its Brady vs. Brees as the MVP discussion heats up. Brady will look for his 6th consecutive 300 yard game, while Brees tries to lead a balanced Saints offense. Wes Welker was huge against the Jets last week but it may be Randy Moss’ time to shine against a Saints secondary that is dealing with injuries to Leigh Torrence, Tracy Porter, Jabrari Greer and Randall Gay.

Pick:

Week 12 Picks

Packers vs. Lions

Raiders vs. Cowboys

 

Giants vs. Broncos

Bucs vs. Falcons

Dolphins vs. Bills

 

Redskins vs. Eagles

Seahawks vs. Rams

Panthers vs. Jets

Browns vs. Bengals

Colts vs. Texans

Chiefs vs. Chargers

Jaguars vs. 49ers

Bears vs. Vikings

 

Week 11 Featured Games

Colts vs. Ravens

Overview: Fresh off an impressive (if indecisive) come from behind victory over the Patriots the 9-0 Colts head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. We all know that the Ravens can beat the league’s poorer teams (a 16-0 victory over the Browns wasn’t all that impressive, frankly) but to be seen as a legit playoff contender as the season rolls on the Ravens will have to start winning games against stiffer competition. They get their chance to do that, and then some, against the undefeated Colts. The Colts have definitely looked beatable over the past 3 weeks (shakey wins over Houston, San Fran and New England). Offensively, the Colts should match up well against the Colts. While Indianapolis boasts a pretty impressive pass defense (214 YPG allowed – inflated by Brady’s 375 in week 10) they have struggled at times to stop the run, and to stop third down conversions (44.7%). If Baltimore is able to get Ray Rice involved running the ball, and as a 3rd down option in the pass attack, they should be able to generate some scoring opportunities. Joe Flacco has played his best football at home, and will need to be consistently effective against a Colts secondary that is down a few bodies. Meanwhile, Peyton draws a tough Baltimore defense allowing just a hair over 300 total yards per game, ranked 7th in the league. Don’t expect Manning to post poor numbers, but he could struggle to live up to his usual form against the Ravens.

Key Players: Rice is the key to the Ravens offense in any given week – in games where they have been aware of this, the team has flourished, when they’ve tried to force throws, etc. they have not. If Rice can consistently move the ball it will go a long way towards the Ravens success. Ray Lewis will have to match minds on the field with Manning if he hopes to keep up with the Colts in no huddle offense, the entire Ravens D will have to prove that the shutout of the Browns was more about team success than opponent ineptitude. Joseph Addai continues to find a way to put points on the board, he didn’t have alot of opportunities in Week 10 but was in the end zone twice, and he’ll be in tough to match the output of Rice on the other side of the field.

Pick:

 Chargers vs. Broncos

 

Overview: Just three weeks ago it would have been hard to predict that the winner of this game would walk away the clear cut AFC West leader, however, that’s what we get in this week 11 matchup. The Chargers have been riding a hot streak of late, with a fairly balanced offensive attack and a much sharper defense, while the Broncos are on a slide. A 4th straight loss at the hands of the Chargers puts their playoff run in jeopardy. When these teams last met just over a month ago it looked like the teams were headed in opposite directions, with the Broncos walking away with an 11 point victory. The Chargers bring a rush attack that is averaging only 75 yards per game into Denver against a defense that still ranks pretty well against the run despite its recent issues. Rivers can be expected to put together a solid game through the air, but if the Chargers don’t field a better rush attack then they did the last time these two teams met they might find themselves in trouble.

Key Players: Kyle Orton’s health will go a long way to determining the Broncos success. If Chris Simms is thrust into the starters role (as is expected at this point) he may do a little better than his sub-25% completion percentage in relief in week 10, but can’t be expected to effectively lead the Broncos offense. If vintage LT shows up this week he has an opportunity to take over the game against a Broncos defense that has struggled of late. His 96 yards and 2 scores last week came against a seemingly tough matchup in Philadelphia and he will look to translate that success into this week’s matchup.

Pick:

Jets vs. Patriots

Overview: The Patriots are coming off a tough loss after which their coach (unjustly?) has been criticized reamed by media, former players, and anyone with an opinion on football. Add to that the fact that the Jets beat the Patriots in New York and then brazenly celebrated afterwards the last time these two teams met and the Patriots should have little trouble getting motivated for this game. The Jets lost narrowly (24-22 to the Jaguars) last week as well, and will need a win to cling to their faint playoff hopes (and reverse their own share of criticism levelled at the team that is 1-5 in their last six games). The Jets defense allow the 3rd lowest yards per game in the league, and hold opponents to an impressive 17.6 points per game. Of course, the Patriots themselves are 3rd in the league in scoring defense and racked up 34 points against the top team in the league in that category last week.

Key Players: When these two teams met in week 2 the Patriots failed to record an offensive touchdown. That was Brady’s 2nd game back after missing nearly all of 2008 with a knee injury, and Wes Welker was unavailable for the Patriots. In recent weeks Brady has clearly gotten back up to speed (throwing for 300+ in 4 straight) and Wes Welker has resumed his usual integral role in the Patriots offense. With these two players producing at their best, the Patriots will be much harder to contain in Week 11. Darrelle Revis really started getting attention as a shutdown corner when he limited Randy Moss to 4 catches for 24 yards in their week 2 matchup. How these two match up in Week 11 could go a long way to determining the success of their respective teams. Mark Sanchez is pleased to have Jerricho Cotchery back on the field and performing well, taking some of the pressure of him to force balls to other receivers. Cotchery will have to be open to give his young quarterback a consistent option in the receiving game.

Pick:

Week 11 Picks

Panthers vs. Dolphins

Redskins vs. Cowboys

Browns vs. Lions

Bills vs. Jaguars

Steelers vs. Chiefs

Seahawks vs. Vikings

Falcons vs. Giants

Saints vs. Bucs

 

Cardinals vs. Rams

Bengals vs. Raiders

Eagles vs. Bears

Titans vs. Texans

Well, everyone is weighing in on this one, and while the game’s outcome won’t necessarily tell us anything, their going head to head with one another brings the question to our minds. Who is the NFL’s top QB? Who brings the most to his team?

At the top of ESPN’s broadcast we were informed that 13.5 Hall of Fame QBs picked Manning to only 2.5 for Brady, that’s a pretty impressive edge.

When comparing the stats side by side Manning has a significant edge in touchdowns and yardge, and a slight edge in career QB rating. Brady’s record setting 50 touchdown season isn’t even worth much next to Manning as Brady set the record just one above Manning’s career high of 49.

But statistics can’t be the only measure here. Consider that Manning has always had a full compliment of high-skilled receivers, most notably a career’s worth of playing with Marvin Harrison and the recent success of Reggie Wayne. Undoubtedly Manning’s skill at the quarterback position has helped build up his receivers, but he’s always played with some great wideouts. Brady, meanwhile spent his first 6 years as a starter with a receiving corps who was modest at best, but Brady was able to get the most out of this group when he needed to, throwing for only average statistics, but winning a lot of games along the way.

In 2007, when Wes Welker and Randy Moss came to town, we all know what happened, and after missing all of 2008 (save the first quarter) Brady has shaken off some early struggles to show that he can still be the most dangerous quarterback in the league with a strong receiving corps.

I think its important to remember also that Manning was a first overall selection, destined and groomed for his role as the leader of the Colts offense. Brady was 199th overall selection and was thrust into the starting role due to an injury to Drew Bledsoe in his second season, leading the Patriots to a SuperBowl championship in the process.

Brady and the Pats would go on to win 2 more championships in the next 3 years. He wears 3 rings to Mannings 1.

Both quarterbacks have unquestionable football intelligence, leadership skills, and game management ability. Their statistics are unimpeachable. Both are future hall of famers.

I give the edge to Brady, perhaps out of personal bias, but moreso because he has shown a history of winning the big game (3 SB wins and 2 SB MVPs). Manning floundered in his first few trips to the playoffs, until leading the Colts to the Championship in SuperBowl XLI.

Based on pure stats, the win goes to Manning, but Brady as a winner, with an immeasurable, intangible talent to motivate, lead, and get it done in big games gets the nod.