Checkdown Chatter

Well, as the dawn of the new season is upon us, its time to take an inventory of where everyone stands in relation to one another, and what can be expected heading into the 2010 campaign.

So, what follows is my take on each team’s relative strength – rest assured that these rankings are very dynamic, and its more just a scattered thought process right now, particularly until we see everyone on the field.

Parentheticals represent where they stood heading into the playoffs last year.

Last year's SuperBowl Rivals show no signs of regression heading into this year, and sit comfortably atop our power rankings heading into 2010.

1. Indianapolis Colts – (2) – I know they lost the big one, but until the SuperBowl this team won every game they tried to win last year, and I see no reason for a significant lapse heading into 2010. The offense is just as dangerous.

2. New Orleans Saints – (4) – And then there is the team that beat them. There hasn’t been a lot of noise out of New Orleans this offseason, but there wasn’t a whole lot that needed fixing. They’ll miss Sharper for the first 6 weeks and there are some other cogs on defense dealing with issues, but Brees & co. can score enough to pick up the slack.

3. Dallas Cowboys – (4) – The Cowboys are hard to bet against in the NFC East, with a great three headed running game that they reportedly know how to balance this season, and WR Dez Bryant who has to be an upgrade over Roy Williams on the oustide.

4. Green Bay Packers – (6) – This team made some important moves this offeseason, with protection for Rodgers (think of how dangerous he was last year while he spent most of it on his back) and some significant strides on defense. If the o-line manages to hold it together for the season, and the defense clamps down a little better (remember the 100 pt game vs. Arizona?, still fresh.. still hurts Pack fans) this team could take the NFC.

5. Minnesota Vikings - (5) – Favre is back for another kick at the can, but he’s lost his primary weapon. A maligned Percy Harvin and newly inked Greg Camarillo (a reliable receiver on 3rd down, yes) don’t inspire the same confidence as breakout star Sidney Rice. That said, they still have a very dangerous offense led by Favre/AP and the defense remains strong, particularly if Winfield et. al can rebound from injury.

6. New England Patriots – (8) – Not ready to count out the Pats, despite the awful playoff game against Baltimore. This team has an edge this year, and the last time they had that, they set all kindsa records. Brady is a man on a mission in camp, and the young defense has had another year to grow.

7. Baltimore Ravens (11) – Flacco entering his 3rd year, improved receiving corps, breakout star in Ray Rice and a high-end defense. That formula is enough to win a lot of ball games.

8. Atlanta Falcons (16) – Back to full health, with top notch players at the skill positions.

9. New York Jets (12) – The Jets could make a run at the AFC East this year. Would like this team a lot better with Revis concretely in the lineup, and Sanchez doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.

10. San Diego Chargers (1) – loss (potentially season, certainly 6 games) of V-Jax doesn’t necessarily warrant the significant drop, but I like this team a lot better with a true #1 receiver.

11. Cincinatti Bengals (10) – The schedule gets a lot tougher, but the Bengals have gotten a lot deeper. Can Benson hold up to the workload again, or will Palmer and the WRs take some of the load this year? Regardless, this team rests with its defense and needs continued strong play to contend.

12. Houston Texans (13) – I liked this team a whole lot down the stretch this year, at the time, I think they deserved to get into the dance a lot more than everyone’s playoff darlings the New York Jets. Its tough playing in Indy’s division, but the pieces are all in place for Houston.

13. Miami Dolphins (21) – the upgrade at WR is significant, and should be enough to put Chad Henne on the QB radar.

14. San Francisco 49ers (22) – Kurt Warner’s retirement has handed this team the NFC West, as far as I’m concerned. It will be up to Alex Smith’s continued development to hang onto it. The defense is a lock.

15. New York Giants (18) – The Giants can only hope that health, and coordinator changes can revamp this defense. They can’t win with the unit they had in place last year. Eli and the offense showing promise, and if Brandon Jacobs comes back healthy and dominant, they’ll have no worries moving the ball.

16. Tennessee Titans (15) – this team could easily rank higher based on the last 2.5 months of ‘09. With Vince Young starting to look like an NFL quarterback, and without an 0-6 hole to start them out, the Titans could make some noise this season. They also have a guy who can handle the ball in the backfield, you may have heard of him.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers (14) – All the focus on losing Holmes, and 4 games without Roethlisberger makes us forget that this defense wasn’t anything to write home about for most of last year either. The first four games are vital.

18. Philladelphia Eagles (7) – The Eagles are too dangerous to be in the middle of the pack, and I don’t think Kolb will turn out to be a big downgrade (if at all) from McNabb, but I’d like to see him with a few regular season games under his belt before I ramp up the Eagles. A great young nucleus of players here though.

19. Arizona Cardinals (9) – Well, so much for the Leinart era. This team lost a whole lot at QB, and some big pieces of its underrated defense, will be very tough to repeat as division champs.

20. Denver Broncos (20) – I’m nowhere near Denver and Josh McDaniels still makes me nervous. I have no faith in his revamped roster, not this season at least.

21. Chicago Bears (19) – The Bears finished ‘09 hot and have an exciting new offensive system for ‘10. I wasn’t ready to just bash on Martz as a quarterback killer from the outset, but 9 sacks in 2 (brief) preseason appearances by Cutler recently leaves me a little anxious. Bears football will be fun this season though.

22. Carolina Panthers (17) – The preseason has been awful for the two headed Panthers rush attack, and without them, there is a lot (too much) pressure on Moore behind centre. If they can get it straightened out, there are a handful of wins to be had here, but it looks to me like Carolina is playing for 3rd place this year.

23. Washington Redskins (28) – McNabb is an upgrade over Campbell, for a year or two anyway, but the Redskins just keep spending free agent $ with no results, he’s not enough to make them a contender.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars (23) – If you’re just looking at this team’s record from last season, you’re not getting the full picture. 7-9 isn’t all that bad, and they were sniffing playoffs at one (long forgotten) point. But this team played no defense, and a passing game led by David Garrard is bland at best.

25. Detroit Lions (31) – I’m a bit overzealous in my Lions appreciation this year, I realize they were 2-14 in 09, and 0-16 not all that long ago, but I think they may do better than a 2 game improvement this season. Stafford can throw the ball, Best is electric. The defense still won’t intimidate anyone, but Suh helps.

26. Cleveland Browns (24) – I think Delhomme helps this team at QB. I’m sure a handful of interceptions early will prove my wrong, but there is nowhere to go but up from the ‘09 season…. plus, they managed to win 5 games last year.

27. Oakland Raiders (29) – Jason Campbell is a big help here. Still a weird preseason with roster moves, cuts, Al Davisness. The Raiders continue to show their dysfunction, but they’ve got some skill on defense and now boast an average NFL quarterback. Things are looking up.

28. Seattle Seahawks (28) – I don’t see the Houshmandzadeh release as a surprise, but it is certainly a sign that this organization is rebuilding. I hope Whitehurst uses this year as a good opportunity to learn and comes in ready to play in ‘11, because Hasslebeck is on his way out. In fact, he wouldn’t have a shot at starting for many other teams right now, in my eyes.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29) – Josh Freeman’s first full year at the helm, and he’s got a great rookie receiver to throw to. That’s about all Bucs fans have to look forward to this year, wins might be few and far between.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (26) – I don’t see their defense getting a whole lot better, and Matt Cassel proved that he isn’t the quarterback he looked like in the New England mirage. I don’t see any real signs of improvement in the offseason, either.

31. Buffalo Bills (25) – This team has 3 above average running backs, and 0 competent quarterbacks. CJ Spiller might contrinute, this year and in the future, but this team won’t win without someone to move the chains through the air.

32. St. Louis Rams (32) – Sam Bradford is ahuge investment. Lets hope the improved offensive line can keep him on his feet and safe. I don’t see a whole lot of upside to the 2010 season, particularly with Donnie Avery now lost for the season.

1. San Diego Chargers – Jets looked impressive again vs. Cincy, and Sanchez showed un-rookie like poise. Still, I’m sure San Diego enjoyed the week off. Also sure they’d rather draw the #5 seed than the #6 this week. Given the weeks slate of games, they probably came out with the best possible matchup.

2. Indianapolis Colts – The Ravens gave the Colts a scare earlier this year, and their QB pressure was all kinds of crazy on Sunday, but you have to feel that Peyton can handle it a little better than the Pats did in the wild card.

3. Dallas Cowboys – For the 2nd straight week the Cowboys dominated the Eagles, once an outside SuperBowl pick, and look poised to make a run. All facets of their game are clicking right now.

4. New Orleans Saints – Offense must be salivating at watching how the Cards got cut up Sunday night, but is their defense equipped to stop Warner and the gang? Despite giving up 45 points the Cardinals have huge momentum coming off their last game – something the Saints lack coming into this one.

5. Minnesota Vikings – ‘Boys getting lots of pressure with just 3 man rushes, Favre might not be able to wrangle his way out of the grasp of Ware et. al. Vikings played a strong 6 quarters to end the season, but need to string together a full four quarters against a near flawless Cowboys team.

6. Arizona Cardinals – Playoff magic (on offense anyway) is there again. Fitz in the endzone, Kurt on an accuracy clinic. This defense is much better than what they showed – really that was about Green Bay’s great offense – and will need to be to contend.

7. Green Bay Packers - You couldn’t ask for much more for Rodgers and the gang. They ran up against a hot team, and their defense couldn’t get the stops. Lots of promise with the young core of the offense. Playoff contenders for years to come.

8. Baltimore Ravens – This defense looked scary as hell in the wild card round. Looking like Ravens teams of early 2000 (complete with QB shortcomings). Run hard, tackle hard, win the game. Will need to keep the pressure coming.

9. New England Patriots - Sad state when the opposition runs 80 percent, can’t pass worth a damn when they try, and you still can’t stop the run. Patriots lacked a certain magic this weekend, and this season in general.

10. Philadelphia Eagles – Got manhandled again. Lack of intensity was apparent. Soon will be McNabb’s last crack.

11. New York Jets – Tough to rank a playoff team below the dropouts, but, I need more proof. Defense is unimpeachable, but can they contain the Chargers?

12. Cincninatti Bengals – Was a good year for the Bengals but Carson Palmer was pedestrian. His shortcomings were well hidden while they were winning, but he’s lost some of his eliteness.

While I wouldn’t necessarily agree that all the playoff teams deserve to be in the top 12, its the most logical way to sort the list from this point… and they’ve all earned (to various degrees) their spot in the post season.

Playoff Teams

1. San Diego Chargers – With all the perfect season talk we’ve forgotten about the run that the Chargers are on, and that they finished tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL.
2. Indianapolis Colts – By the time the Colts play their first playoff game, they won’t have a victory in over a month. That can’t be good for momentum.
3. New Orleans Saints – Ditto. Worse still, the Saints actually tried to win.
4. Dallas Cowboys – Suddenly they are the hottest team in the NFC. Offense clicking and two straight shutouts has them looking like the team to beat.
5. Minnesota Vikings – Exclamation point victory over the Giants give the Vikings some legitimacy back heading into the playoffs.
6. Green Bay Packers – This team also riding a hot streak coming into the playoffs, things coming together at the right time.
7. Philadelphia Eagles – Looked utterly flat in a game they should have been amped for. From 2 to 6 seed awfully fast, and bounced in 1st round could be next.
8. New England Patriots – Loss of Welker and first round matchup against physical Ravens may be enough to derail serious playoff aspirations.
9. Arizona Cardinals – Another team with significant injuries in Week 17. Cards will need another impressive playoff surge, especially in 1st round against Packers team that gave them the goods this week.
10. Cincinatti Bengals – Speaking of flat… Bengals coming in on an incredible low. 72 net yards against 1st round opponent 6 days before rematch.
11. Baltimore Ravens – This is a dangerous team, with an identiy and incredible motivation, but have been beaten by some tough teams this year, and the playoff field is strong.
12. New York Jets – It’s hard to rank this as the 12th playoff team after watching Sunday Night Football, but then you remember the 1st 15 games. Defense is incredible, though. Still, its hard to imagine them not making the divisionals.

Missed the Cut

1. Houston Texans – Credit the Texans, who finished9-7 for their first winning season for showing heart in the season’s latter half and in their win over the Patriots. Building blocks are there: defense maturing, Slaton back, Foster a strong finish and Schaub and Johnson lead QBs and WRs.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Late wins weren’t enough to overcome mid season collapse (could also apply above) but this team could have done some damage in the playoffs. Refreshed for 2010 they should make a run.
3. Tennessee Titans – To finish 8-8 after the start this team had is incredible. Hard to envision CJ being any less productive next year, which is scary, and VY will get another shot to lead this team in 2010.
4. Atlanta Falcons – Back to back winning seasons, another year of maturity and an off season to get healthy. Falcons should make waves next year.
5. Carolina Panthers – This team just couldn’t overcome a slow start, but really came on late. Needs to figure out coaching/QB situation. Defense and RB just fine.
6. New York Giants – Is this really the same team that started 5-0? Late season was embarassing – utterly.
7. Chicago Bears – Its hard to be optimistic about a team that struggled so desperately for 14 games, but at least there  is a glimmer of hope for 2010 after watching the last 2.
8. Denver  Broncos – The core of this team at the end of 2008 had some real talent. Entering 2010 I don’t think much of the pre-McDaniels core will remain. At least give the appearance of trying to get into the playoffs, the fans deserve that much.
9. Miami Dolphins – Even in their losses this team showed heart, just too many close games that they couldn’t win.
10. San Francisco 49ers – Soft closing games all that allowed for 8-8 finish as opposed to 6-10.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jags need a lot of work to get anywhere in the AFC.

Loveable Losers

1. Cleveland Browns – somebody get this team a quarterback.
2. Buffalo Bills – somebody get this team a quarterback….
3. Kansas City Chiefs – Unlike a lot of the teams in this section, the building blocks are there.
4. Washington Redskins – Offseason shopping list is pretty long. Starts with coaching staff.
5. Seattle Seahawks – With apologies to Matt Hasselbeck’s career: somebody get this team a quarterback.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – They had a handful of impressive games, but more lopsided ones.
7. Detroit Lions – If they continue their current pace of improvement, the Lions will be 4-12 next year. Sooner or later these guys will run out of money for top draft picks, won’t they?
8. St. Louis Rams – Hard to watch Steven Jackson wasting away.

1. Indianapolis Colts (14-1)(1) – I really don’t see how losing to the Jets helps them maintain momentum, but It’s not my call to make.
2. San Diego Chargers – (12-3)(3) – This team is rolling at the right time. Tomlinson getting in the end zone, playing great on D, and Rivers getting the job done.
3. New Orleans Saints – (13-2)(2) – The first loss was understandable, the second, against the Bucs, is disheartening.
4. New England Patriots – (10-5)(8) – Perhaps their most complete game all year week 16. Though, not all opponents will play like the Jags.
5. Minnesota Vikings – (11-4)(4)  – Their offensive weapons are showing cracks. Coach has rife with QB (though he played well Sunday) and Premiere RB has major fumbling issues.
6. Green Bay Packers – (10-5)(6) – There are weeks when it looks like anyone can beat the Seahawks, but the Packers thoroughly dismantled them. And in a different way for this team, showing strength running.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4)(7) – Handled the Broncos, once thought to be a playoff calibre team. Could finish anywhere between 2 and 6 in NFC seeding.
8. Dallas Cowboys (10-5)(9) – The Cowboys are heating up at the right time. Even in tough start to December Romo et. al were playing well.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5)(8) – They find a way to get it done most times, but this team has a tendency to play down to their opponent which may come back to cost them.
10. Arizona Cardinals (10-5)(10) – Cards have roughed up on some weak opponents of late, but will face much tougher competition moving forward. They can run, pass and play D though. Strong in all 3 elements right now.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)(14) – Well, this team has woken up, but depending on how week 17 plays out, it could either be too little too late, or a very dangerous wild card team.
12. Baltimore Ravens (8-7)(11) – Tough loss vs. division rival, but they’re still playing pretty strong on both sides. Need to play disciplined football to succeed in playoffs.
13. Houston Texans (8-7)(16) – This team lost some tough games early in the season that will come back to haunt them. Texans playing with heart though.
14. Denver Broncos (8-7)(13) – Consecutive losses latest chapter in Broncos implosion from 6-0 start. What have you done for me lately? They’re now a 2-7 team since.
15. Tennessee Titans (7-8)(15) – Playoff dreams are over, still… What have you done for me lately? Vince Young is a 7-2 QB.
16. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)(17) – Faced a lot of adversity. I think Falcons fans can feel ok settling for first back to back winning seasons.
17. New York Giants (8-7)(12) – This team can just not figure out their identity. Early they were a SB contender, lately, they looked worthy of fighting for a playoff spot, last week, they had no heart whatsoever.
18. Carolina Panthers (7-8)(21) – Matt Moore giving 2010 Panthers something to think about. Stewart too…. And Fox?
19. New York Jets (8-7)(20) – This is not a playoff team, and it irks me that their chances of getting in hinge on last weeks win over half of Indy, and a needed victory over a potentially resting Bengals team.
20. Miami Dolphins (7-8)(19) – Some points for fighting out of the hole vs. Houston, but they lose lots for getting into it in the first place.
21. San Francisco 49ers (7-8)(23) – Well, they beat the Lions in a week where teams ahead of them were busy losing.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8)(18) – A week after competing against the Colts this team was dismantled by the Pats. Consistency is key. So are NFL calibre corners.
23. Chicago Bears (6-9)(26) – If you’re an optimist you’re pleased with the promise the Bears showed Monday night. If the glass is half empty, you wonder where its been all year.
24. Oakland Raiders (5-10)(22) – One week they beat the Broncos, the next they lose to the Browns. Cable was right to rip Russell, but you aren’t a playoff team if you lose to Cleveland.
25. Washington Redskins (6-10)(24) – Never in question vs. Dallas and NYG. Long way to climb out of division cellar.
26. Cleveland Browns (4-11)(28) – Credit this team for getting a handful of wins amidst all their issues.
27. Buffalo Bills (5-10)(25) – Quarterback carousel to continue in week 17, how does that help?
28. Seattle Seahawks (5-10)(27) – Matt Hasslebeck: BLECH. Why is no one calling for Seneca Wallace to lead this team in 2010. (Requote from last week, it still counts, trust me).
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)(30) – This team once look like they’d be winless all year, from that to toppling the NFCs top seed.
30. St. Louis Rams (1-13)(31) – We got to see how the Rams looked without Steven Jackson. A nightmare for Missouri fans.
31. Kansas City Chiefs (3-12)(32) – Jamaal Charles is the lone bright spot. Lets hope he’s productive in a full season. Lets also hope Bowe gets a full season next year, I suppose.
32. Detroit Lions (2-12)(29) – All this losing, and they won’t even get the number one draft pick.

You’d think by now this would be a pretty easy process, but there are still lots of things that can chance this week.

So, by the way I pick this weekends games, this is what we get for the NFL playoffs this year. The problem is that, invariably, I get a handful of games wrong each week. Most do.

Of interest is do the Bengals rest folks and lose to the Jets? If so, the Jets are in. Also, if the same sort of thing happens in New England, which it may, and the Pats lose to the Texans (Texans could win anyway) somehow that eliminates Pittsburgh and gets Denver in.

At any rate, lets talk matchups based on the above.

In the NFC both higher ranked seeds are in play this week, Pittsburgh is hot right now and could beat the Patriots, while the Ravens would give the Bengals a pretty rough time, despite the fact that Cincinnati ran the AFC North this year.

I think, in the end though, both top seeds advance, setting up Cinci/SD and Indy/NE.

Then, I see New England losing to San Diego in the AFC Championship.

In the NFC I like the Packers to beat the Cardinals two weeks running, and the same for the Cowboys over the Eagles.

Then, the Cowboys can handle the hapless Vikings right now, and I think the Packers can beat the Saints.

Cowboys vs. Pack in the NFC championship sets up a San Diego vs. Green Bay championship.

It's becoming pretty hard to take this guy, his 24th ranked Redskin team or any of the lovable losers below him on the list seriously.

1. Indianapolis Colts – (14-0)(1) – NFLs last undefeated team has a shot at history… even if they rest starters from here.
2. New Orleans Saints – (13-1)(2) – Saint’s proved what I have suspected all along. They are not perfect… mighty fun to watch though.
3. San Diego Chargers – (11-3) (4) – While the Saints and Vikings were busy losing to contenders (and Matt Moore) the Chargers handled a top seeded playoff team with ease in Week 15.
4. Minnesota Vikings – (11-3)(3) – Has not been a great 3 game stretch for a once dominant team. Sideline debacle/confusion/uproar won’t help.
5. New England Patriots – (9-5)(8) – Road win – even in a sloppy game vs. Buffalo should give this team some momentum going forward.
6. Green Bay Packers – (9-5)(5) – Pittsburgh’s outburst last week had more to do with their offense getting hot than the Packer D, but its tough not to be a little fearful after giving up 500 passing yards. Rodgers was again, a star, though.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)(9) – Eagles are piling on the wins, but the finish could leave them as the 6^th seed in the NFC instead of the 3^rd.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)(6) – Still in the discussion, but hard to take a team with little explosiveness as a serious SuperBowl contender.
9. Dallas Cowboys – (9-5)(12) – That was a near flawless game vs. New Orleans on Saturday. It will take near perfection from here, though. A tough pace to keep up.
10. Arizona Cardinals (9-5)(7) – So that was the rebound game everyone was calling for? Uh-oh.
11. Baltimore Ravens – (8-6)(13) – Black Birds looking strong of late, AFC spot all but locked up, but they need to click like that on offense in the playoffs.
12. New York Giants – (8-6)(11) – So much for a Redskin upset. Giants dominanting, heating up at the right time… undefeated team in the AFC. Sound familiar? Too bad we might not get to witness.
13. Denver Broncos – (8-6)(10) – This ‘playoff team’ just lost to some combination of Charlie Frye, Losman and Russell?
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)(19) – Steelers have woken up, but without a win against division rival Ravens it will be for nought.
15. Tennessee Titans (7-7)(14) – Something feels unjust about Denver qualifying for the party, and Tennessee not getting the invite – especially if they can topple San Diego on Christmas.
16. Houston Texans – (7-7)(15) – Nothing inspiring about a narrow win over St. Louis but this team stays in the conversation, for now.
17. Atlanta Falcons – (7-7)(20) – Yes, that was a sloppy win against the Jets, but this team looked much better with Matt Ryan leading the game winning drive.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7)(18) – Jags finally filled the stadium, and they almost gave fans a glimmer of hope. Indy remains perfect, however, and the Jags fall farther from playoff discussion.
19. Miami Dolphins – (7-7)(16) – Credit them for hanging with Tennessee, but they had their chance to get the win.
20. New York Jets – (7-7)(17) – I know Rex Ryan was wrong… but,really, could he have been more right?
21. Carolina Panthers (6-8)(23) – No one is saying Matt Moore is the answer, but he’s certainly looked like a much better option.
22. Oakland Raiders – (5-9)(27) – The Raiders have played some terrible games, and are still on the whole a terrible team, don’t get me wrong. But they’ve won some tough one’s too, and that’s worth something…
23. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)(21) – They weren’t expected to beat Philly, but this team has got to follow up the impressive wins by at least remaining competitive.
24. Washington Redskins (5-9)(22) – Nothing about Washington’s loss against the Giants was positive, not even that hideous trick field goal (that caused a bit of a ‘maybe Zorn has already been fired and he’s just saying FU to the fans’ uproar on twitter) was pretty. And nothing about them suggests that they deserve to be atop the heap of the illustrious 5-9 gang but no one below them is really jockeying for position.
25. Buffalo Bills (5-9)(26) – If they hadn’t failed to run the ball in the 2^nd half they may have hung even better with the Pats last week.
26. Chicago Bears (5-9)(24) – Jay Cutler: YUCK
27. Seattle Seahawks (5-9)(25) – Matt Hasslebeck: BLECH. Why is no one calling for Seneca Wallace to lead this team in 2010.
28. Cleveland Browns (3-11)(28) – Jerome Harrison’s break out was quite an encore (though unexpected) to their 3 week run. The problem is, all they are doing now is killing their draft stock.
29. Detroit Lions (2-12)(30) – This team will miss their rookie QB who has landed on the IR. I like their prospects to be a 4 win team in 2010, but not this year.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)(32) – Beating the Seahawks is no large feat, I know, but they won without question, at least.
31. St. Louis Rams (1-12)(31) – Well, they fought it out against Houston, taking a lesson from their half back in never give up philosophy… but, they’ve still got my vote for first pick in the draft.
32. Kansas City Chiefs (3-11)(29) – Sure, they scored 34 points, but they gave up the 3^rd best running game in the history of the NFL to (sorry) a nobody, and 203 kick return yards on two plays. Matt Cassel had the only productive game I remember him having all year, which isn’t really a good thing in a week 15 sub par game.

• I picked the Steelers to beat the Ravens in a big game, and that puts them into the 6th seed based on a tiebreak with Denver. If the Steelers can’t win out, however, the Broncos at 9-7 (assuming a loss to the Eagles) basically own the tiebreak over everyone else.
• I picked the Giants to beat the Vikings in Week 17, but also the Cowboys to beat the Eagles. If New York wins out, Dallas will be faced with an interesting position: win and they  win the division, lose, and they are our completely. I think based on that the Cowboys will come through int he clutch, though I could be proven wrong.
• Looking at first round matchups Steelers vs. Patriots could get pretty interesting. I’d like to see how the Steelers finish the season (i.e. more 500 yard passing games) before I made a pick, but I’ll go with the Pats.
• I think the Ravens can take a Cincinnati team that is looking less and less exciting each week.
• Then its the first seeds, setting up a Chargers vs. Colts matchup, where the Chargers make it to the SuperBowl.
• In the NFC I like the Cowboys to beat the Eagles again (a bit too bullish on a bunch of proven chokers, I know, but I think they’ve got the guts, beating the Saints was an impressive start). Then, I don’t see anyway the Cardinals (who I love as a team) can come out on top against the Packers.
• Packers then beat Vikings in the ultimate revenge game for two losses this season, and I think the ‘Boys could handle the Saints again.
• Packers to beat Cowboys in the NFC Championship, and its a Green Bay-San Diego Championship.

Who wins in that scenario? How bad did I miss the mark?

With hopefully a little more class, two 13-0 teams are trying to rewrite the book on the perfect season. Is one showing chinks in the armour?

1. Indianapolis Colts (13-0)(2) – Hard to jump around between 13-0 teams but hands down victory over Denver is more impressive than down to the wire wins vs. Washington and Atl.
2. New Orleans Saints (13-0)(1) – Continuing to flirt with that first loss, but finding a way to get it done. Not that there’s anything wrong with 12-1.
3. Minnesota Vikings (11-2)(3) – 30-10 dismantling of a top seed warrants a step up the list… but there’s no room at the top.
4. San Diego Chargers (10-3)(4) – Super Chargers are rolling… run game is scoring, pass game looks good, D getting the stops.
5. Green Bay Packers (9-4)(8) – Pack attack has struggled vs. the Bears this year, but good to know they can get it done without Rodgers throwing 3 tds.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4)(5) – Bengals showing cracks. If last week was tough for them, it doesn’t promise to be much easier in week 15.
7. Arizona Cardinals (8-5)(6) – Speed bump against the 49ers, but they responded well to the last turnover fest. 2 of 5 losses have come against San Fran.
8. New England Patriots (8-5)(7) – Lots of rumbling coming out of NE. Coach Bill has to pull it together in time for perennial playoff run.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)(11) – With a run game this team could go to the SuperBowl. Andy Reid doesn’t want to look for it though.
10. Denver Broncos (8-5)(9) – Orton to Marshall was working well, and the defense handled Peyton about as well as anyone, but its not enough to be a top AFC team.
11. New York Giants (7-6)(12) – softer schedule could land Giants as NFC Easts playoff team, not Dallas.
12. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)(10) – see above. I won’t say that the Cowboys are having a December meltdown, but I will say they’ve had one of the toughest slates since Dec 1, and that continues.
13. Baltimore Ravens (7-6)(16) – It was just the Lions, I know, but that was a dominant performance.
14. Tennessee Titans (6-7)(15) – with a win over Miami they are a .500 team. From 0-6 to 7-7 would be a feat, the opposite of last year’s swoon.
15. Houston Texans (6-7)(19) – They deserve a better record. At least, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson do. Hard to believe this is a losing team, but they find ways…
16. Miami Dolphins (7-6)(17) – Usually a win on the road against a 7-5 team should impress me, but it was ugly, and it was the Jags.
17. New York Jets (7-6)(21) – Its going to be the run game carrying this team from here on, regardless of QB. Thomas Jones is playing strong, and the defense continues to hold anyone and everyone, but he can’t get the offense to 10-6 on his own.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6)(14) – Will soon be 7-7. With all the intriguing teams currently tied/below them, you’ve got to be rooting for the Jags to fall short of the playoffs, if you’re a football fan at all. (Read my thoughts on MJD)
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7)(13) – Lost a game they were built to win, the excuses are running low.
20. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)(18) – Well, they went to the wire with New Orleans and Chris Redman has been a great stand in. 3 winnable games left, but a loss to the Jets this weekend means it will be at least 2012 before the Falcons post first franchise back to back winning seasons.
21. San Francisco 49ers (6-7)(22) – Impressive defensive effort against the high-powered Cards, and got back to 9ers football with Gore leading the charge. If they continue, they’ll move up the ranks, but at this point its just Brownie points anyway.
22. Washington Redskins (4-9)(24) – The offense is humming, and you aren’t hearing any coordinator jokes anymore. You may start to hear lots of Clinton Portis backlash, however.
23. Carolina Panthers (5-8)(21) – Matt Moore is a capable passer. Capable, gets you nowhere, however. DeAngelo Williams getting 13 carries in a game makes me sick.
24. Chicago Bears (26)(5-8)(26) – Offense woke up a little last week, but continued to show its pitfalls.
25. Seattle Seahawks (23)(5-8) – when does some of the blame go to Matt Hasslebeck?
26. Buffalo Bills (5-8)(27) – Running game working well, Jackson has earned his time.
27. Oakland Raiders (4-9)(25) – Bring Back Bruce! Tough break for the Raiders with him going down last week, Jamarcus phase II started way too early.
28. Cleveland Browns (2-11)(30) – 2 straight impressive weeks (loss to SD, win vs. PIT) are good news. Not enough to move them from bottom 5, but promising none the less.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (3-10)(28) – They’ve discovered Jamaal Charles. Now time for Matt Cassel to discover his ’08 self.
30. Detroit Lions (2-11)(29) – Wasn’t this team supposed to be much better vs. the run than pass? Someone tell the Ravens.
31. St. Louis Rams (1-12)(31) – Sympathies to Steven Jackson, who is finally starting to show a little angst.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12)(32) – Josh Freeman can play QB, but any other player, even the rookies, wouldn’t be excused his turnovers, would they?

• Bullet 1: Thanks to Yahoo! Sports for this NFL playoff scenario generator. It came around too late in the season, but its fun, and saves me some ‘graphic design work’.
• The Broncos pretty much have AFC 5th (or 6th) seed locked up. Even with the loss last week, they’d have to lose out to get bounced, they have the 9-7 gang tiebreaks. With Oakland and KC on the schedule (Philly is a loss, likely?) that’s pretty tough to do – even for a team prone to collapse.
• Same goes for the Ravens. Their schedule is tougher (Chi/Pitts/Oak) but its hard for them to lose grip in the AFC. If they lose two of three and the Titans upset the Chargers and/or the Steelers/Texans win out its plausible but they control their own fate at this point.
• In the NFC the top 5 seeds are set in my mind, so, we’ve got a question of 3 teams left all of which could conceivably finish 9-7 vying for the final playoff spot. The Giants have a tiebreaker over Dallas. If the Cowboys win either against New Orleans or Philladelphia, they just have to beat the Redskins and they are in. 2/3 in any combination will do for them. The Giants get Washington, Carolina, and Minnesota (Which should be resting by then) in the next 3 weeks, so 9-7 looks good. If both they and the Giants finish here, they own the tiebreak – but a win by a suddenly competitive Redskins team could derail either one of them. The Falcons would have to win out to get to 9-7, but after the Jets its Buffalo and Tampa so that is doable. They’d have to be the sole 9-7 team to get in, however, and 10-6 almost looks doable for the Giants and/or Cowboys right now, so I wouldn’t bank on it, Dirty Birds.

• If we end up with a Broncos Pats first round rematch as the above suggests, I give the edge to Belichick’s gang. Both teams have looked shaky at points this season, but I believe New England is a tough team to beat twice so I see them advancing. The winner would get the Chargers. Pats vs. Chargers is a toss up, Broncos vs. Chargers should go San Diego’s way.
• Bengals would beat the Ravens, wouldn’t they? Both teams would lose to the Colts.
• So, its Indy vs. NE/SD in the AFC Championship, and I think they’d lose to either of them. I think its a pretty strong possibility that the Chargers could rep the AFC in the SuperBowl.
• In the NFC we should get getting a 1st round matchup of NFC East opponents, whoever they turn out to be. Eagles beat up on the Giants on Sunday night, but really, if it wasn’t for a defensive and/or special teams TD the Giants outplayed the Eagles offensively. Good matchup, but I like Philly again.
• Would have been easy to pick Cards over Green Bay, but after last night, I like the Pack, I think. The winner gets the Saints, and I think either one beats them, frankly.
• Philly vs. Vikes is tough to call, give the edge to Minnesota.
• Minnesota and Green Bay would be a pretty interesting NFC Championship wouldn’t it? The Vikes have one twice, so its easy to vault them into the SuperBowl, but I think the Packers are getting hot at the right time, while the Vikings are staggering.

I’m calling Green Bay vs. San Diego in the championship, with the Chargers coming away victorious. However, that will change next week I’m sure. Stay tuned.

OK, so Rodgers' win had nothing to do with Favre on Monday night, but in a week where Favre was a bit shaky and couldn't help the Vikes, Green Bay picked up a win against a playoff contender. A strong finish and some playoff success might be enough to get the Packers past Favre's legacy (Shirt/Photo: Zazzle.com)

1. New Orleans Saints (12-0)(1) – This team has to lose eventually, they seem to fall asleep for the first half of a lot of games, but, they keep finding ways to win.
2. Indianapolis Colts (12-0)(2) – 16-0 looks like a gimme, even if they rest the starters in Weeks 16 and 17. Without Sorgi now injured, I think they’ll be extra cautious with Peyton.
3. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)(3) – Not their best effort on Sunday night. This team has to be concerned that they had some flaws exposed, that may come back to haunt them come playoff time.
4. San Diego Chargers (9-3)(5) – Almost let the Browns back in it, but they’ve had an impressive run. Offense flexing its muscle, and getting different players involved.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (9-3)(6) – They don’t always win pretty (expected more out of Carson Palmer 2 straight weeks) but they sure know how to win.
6. Arizona Cardinals (8-4)(7) – If Warner played in Week 12 this team could (would) be 9-3 and just 1 game out of an NFC bye.
7. New England Patriots (7-5)(4) – Starting to slide. Defense has plenty of holes, and the offense isn’t playing well enough to keep them from being overexposed.
8. Green Bay Packers (8-4)(12) – Had some difficulty on Monday with penalties, etc. but they came out of that one looking much more like a playoff team.
9. Denver Broncos (8-4)(10) – Broncos seem to have righted the ship just in time to save their playoff lights. Sure, they just beat the Chiefs last week – but they BEAT them.
10. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)(8) – dropped one to the Giants when they had a chance to lock up their playoff spot. NY played well, but with a tough schedule ahead we may be looking at a case of the Decembers. Good thing key week 17 matchup with Philly comes in Jan.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)(11) – With games against the Giants and Cowboys left, the Eagles control their own destiny. Don’t put too much stake in the Falcons trouncing.
12. New York Giants(7-5)(13) – Big win against the Cowboys with season in the balance shows this team can play under pressure – a key ingredient this time of year.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)(9) – The Raiders, really? With the Browns able to hang around San Diego last week, you never know. That’s not something you want to say about a defending SB champ.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)(18) – Ugh, I’m sorry football world, but they almost look playoff bound.
15. Tennessee Titans (5-7)(14) – Colts handled Titans pretty easily, but they’re playing pretty good football. Over last 6 weeks they rank well inside the top 10.
16. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)(15) – Penalties, poor execution, pitiful on Monday. Winnable schedule coming up, but even if they get in, Week 13s Ravens can’t do anything in the playoffs.
17. Miami Dolphins (6-6)(20) – Very few people outside of Miami called that Week 13 performance. Division within grasp for the 2^nd straight year, but they have a large hill to climb.
18. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)(16) – Ryan and Turner out hurts this team, of course, but those guys can’t help the defense much.
19. Houston Texans (5-7)(17) – Schaub is posting excellent numbers this season, and coming back from the shoulder dislocation was a gritty performance, but its not putting wins on the board.
20. New York Jets (6-6)(21) – Also have a shot in AFC East, but I can’t predict a Kellen Clemens led win over the Bucs with much certainty. Maybe the Jets bring Joba Chamberlain in to teach him to throw?
21. Carolina Panthers (5-7)(22) – Moore only threw one pick, in some ways, that’s progress. In other more important ways, it leads to a pretty unimpressive offense. You can have all the great running backs in the world (Carolina boasts two) but it won’t do much good if you can’t throw when you need to.
22. San Francisco 49ers (5-7)(19) – 49ers had every chance to beat Seattle on Sunday, but just couldn’t win. Great elements on their offense, but together they seem a bit out of sync.
23. Seattle Seahawks (26)(5-7) – Another team with enough weapons to succeed but not enough rhythm. Poor line play helps with that. Year 1 of Mora ends much like the last.
24. Washington Redskins (25)(3-9) – I don’t know if ‘Skins fans should be encouraged by performance against Saints or disheartened by their inability to put New Orleans away. I’m going with the latter, way too many mistakes.
25. Oakland Raiders (28)(4-8) – I read one analyst suggesting this is a playoff team with 16 games under Gradkowski. I won’t go that far yet, but they are much stronger.
26. Chicago Bears (24)(5-7) – I’m hoping for a much better 2010 from Cutler. Time will tell, I suppose. 2009 has been long since written off.
27. Buffalo Bills (23)(4-8) – Last couple have been competitive, but the yield is still two losses against two beatable teams.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (27)(3-9) – Came crashing back down to earth in weeks since Steeler win. Suddenly looks more a product of Pittsburgh’s failures (now lost 4 straight) than KCs talent. Though, we knew that during the game.
29. Detroit Lions (29)(2-10) – Culpepper will face Ravens. Results will be the same.
30. Cleveland Browns (1-11(32) – Put up some points against a decent San Diego defense, and the offense has life. This might be a 5, even 6 win team next year. Doesn’t sound like much, but it beats a 5 or 6 touchdown team from earlier this year.
31. St. Louis Rams (1-11)(30) – They have Steven Jackson going for them and little else.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)(31) – Freeman will show rookie side, but they’re taking chances. Another team at the bottom, with promise at least.