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Well, that’s it, LT is electric glide-in’ out of San Diego.

We knew it was coming, but today its official, the Chargers have released one of the greatest backs in NFL history. Tomlinson leaves the Chargers in possession of the single season touchdown record, an MVP trophy (‘06), two rushing crowns, career #2 in rushing TDs, #3 in total touchdowns and a slew of other accolades. What he doesn’t have is a SuperBowl title.

As San Diego gears up for next years’ SuperBowl run without their top rusher, they also realize Darren Sproles can’t carry the load as a number one back either, so their left without a true lead rusher, and are apparently willing to part with Antonio Cromartie to find one.

Things aren’t clear for Tomlinson either, who thinks (though his YPC average last season may suggest otherwise) he’s got a few years left in the tank at 30. Someone will likely give him a shot to prove so, but its doubtful he’ll be the #1 back anywhere next year.

Either way – a great career, and great success in bringing San Diego football to prominence. Now, there can be no arguments – this is Phillip Rivers’ team, and its up to him to lead the Chargers to post season success.

Everyone talks about it, but I started thinking about it on Sunday when I noticed two occurences, both of which I will go into detail on later. 1) Maurice Jones Drew is not running with the same intensity he did in the season’s early weeks, he’s got 14 TDs rushing and is still helping the Jags considerably, but something is amiss; and 2) Chris Johnson’s 28 carries were ridiculous (record chasing or not) against the Rams last week.

Lets start with MJD. For years there was speculation about what he could do once released from Fred Taylor’s shadow in Jacksonville, and at the start of the season he looked like the workhorse back everyone was hoping he could be for this team. To date, through 13 games MJD has 251 carries (his career high already by 50+) and is projected to receive 308 carries – which isn’t all that many as compared to high RB totals in recent years, but is a significant increase in workload – and lets not forget that Jones-Drew is a smaller (height wise, anyway) running back.

In his 3 previous professional years the pint-sized punisher averaged 177 carries. We’re looking at a 40% increase on that by season’s end. His career rushing average: 4.7 YPC, this year, he’s averaging 4.5 – a very respectable number and certainly in line with his career average. He’s also got 14 rushing scores, and continues to make plays week in and week out, he just looks a little slower. In the 6 games before his teams bye Jones-Drew gained 463 yards on 108 carries 4.28 yards per.

We’re throwing out the Titans game because that 20 carry average is a total mess, and had more to do with a run heavy day all around, than anything else, it could skew the data whichever side of the fence it was put on.

In the last four weeks, where I first started to notice the issue he’s had 82 carries for 276 yards, for 3.57 yards per carry. Nothing to be alarmed about, but not consistent with the first half numbers. Right around game 9 is where Jones-Drew eclipsed his career high in rushing attempts. Coincidence, perhaps, but its possible that he’s just not built to take this kind of punishment. That’s no slight on him either, there’s nothing wrong with being a dominant number one back who gets spelled out every now and then by another rusher. In fact, it might even heighten his numbers. Also, consider this: again, throwing out the Titans game where he had two huge runs, in the first half of the season MJD had a long rush of 61. In the last four games, 15 is the must he could muster.

Something to chew on.

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There are lots of examples of this occuring throughout the league. Let’s take another back in his first full season as featured/truly dominant RB. Cedric Benson.

He’s enjoying a bit of a career resurgence in Cincinatti and last week against a tough Vikings defense average 6.0 YPC, so no worries about his decline in burst, but, there was a 2.5 game stretch where the Bengals were without their marquee running back. Unfortunate injury: yes, reading to much into it: perhaps, just a concidence: probably, but… In 7 games before the team’s bye Benson had carried the ball a ton, add in the game after the bye and he had carried 198 times (that’s ridiculous). His previous career high was set last year with 214, so, in half a season he had essentially eclipsed his career total workload.

Come the 9th game, Benson is on the sideline for 2.5 weeks. The two games previous to getting hurt: he carried the ball 71 times. There was a bye week to split up the work, but 70 tackles, plus blocking duty, etc. in two games is pretty excessive to ask one’s body to absorb regardless of the number of weeks in between. In the first 8 games (averaging 25 carries per game) he averaged out at 4.23 YPG. Since then he’s had 59 carries for 3.86. Not a real drop off, and nothing to be worried about after watching him run on the Vikings, but he can’t be expected to stay healthy with all the work.

The Bengals appear to have realized this heading towards the playoffs, and give Marvin Lewis a break, he hasn’t had to think about a 17+ game season in a few years, but they should have been protecting their lead back long before now.

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Then, in terms of a longitudinal study there is the much discussed RB wall players seem to hit when they turn age 30. LT is having to listen to the discussion now, justifiably, as his play has declined in recent years. He’s not the only one to have gone through it, hence the discussion of the 30 year old curse as a phenomenon.

However, its not like all NFL running backs have a biological clock that runs out of battery at this age, its more about the sustained violence their bodies go through. This is LT2’s 9th season in the NFL, he’s carried the ball well over 2500 (2846 to be precise) times in that stretch. Again, that’s alot of tackles. Here are the YPC averages of his career: 3.6 (he was a rookie, just getting warmed up); 4.5; 5.3; 3.9 (let ist slide, 17 rushing TDs); 4.3; 5.2 (28 on the ground); 4.7; 3.8 (age 29); 3.2 (so far this year, age 30).

There you have it, its a marked decline this season and its hard to argue that he’s lost (at least part of) a step. He still shows some burst on certain plays, but not consistently. To Tomlinson’s credit he has 11 rushing touchdowns this year and is still a big factor on a championship calibre team, but he’s not running the ball so well.

Again, I’m not the only analyst to make these suggestions, so I’ll spare you the over analysis, but I find it interesting.

Even more so when you throw in the Ricky Williams factor. Ricky is 32. He owns one of the greatest seasons posted by a running back in recent memory while with New Orleans, but he also holds some more dubious titles that cost him a few years ‘in his prime’.

Ricky was having a solid career, then he missed 04/05, missed 06/07 and all but a handful of carries in 07/08. Last year he reentered the league at age 31, and as part of a tandem attack in Miami he posted a solid 4.1 yards per carry.

This year, he’s come back just as fresh, and is handling the lead responsibility now that Brown is out for the season, his response: 4.9 YPC and his highest total (though this may fluctuate before seasons end) in a single season in his career. He’s not mailing it in either, he has 200 carries through 13 games and is on pace to be around 250 by season’s end. Not a bad total in this era of RBBC. He’s also posted some massive season totals with nearly 800 carries in 2 seasons from 02-04.

So, if Tomlinson is ‘falling apart’ at 30. Ricky should have one foot in the ground at 32, right? The difference: its not about age, its about punishment, Ricky has 700 carries less than Tomlinson in his NFL career spread out over a few extra years (he has the CFL carries too, but as a Canadian I can tell you they hardly count).

Anyway, those are a few case studies. What does it all mean? Very little, but these, and other cases suggest that running back decline in production has something to do with a critical mass of carries, that number varies per season, per career, and per back, but each RB has only so many carries in him, and once you eclipse that number it may mean a decline in production, or an injury.

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Which brings me to my point – I think I have one… last week we watched a superstar running back continue his race to at least one, if not two all time RB records. Congratulations to Chris Johnson on a great season, but how is it possible that the Titans, who have a genuine, if not very small, shot at a playoff spot allowing Johnson to run the ball 28 times in this game, after it was long out of hand. Lendale sat on the bench, gaining weight back… certainly not exercising it off.

Johnson is a young back, without a significant injury history who should have no real issues wearing down, but every snap he’s in there against an embarrassed defense risks injury. It didn’t make sense to me – and as important as the accolades are, keeping your franchise player safe is more so.

Chargers vs. Browns

• Quinn put together an impressive opening drive, capped with an 11 yard strike to Massaquoi.
• Chargers did their best to respond, but mustered only a field goal after stalling in the red zone.
• Next time they got the ball the Chargers made sure of it, with a 66 yard strike from Rivers to Tolbert.
• On 2nd and goal from the 3, after another impressive Browns drive, the Chargers (Phillips) come up with a strip sack and keep the Browns out of the end zone.
• At half Rivers is 8/14 for 153 and a score, Tomlinson has 43 total yards, and Vincent Jackson is still surprisingly quiet with 1 catch for 13.
• For the Browns Quinn is 12/20 with 159 and a score, but has the lost fumble and 6 different Browns have receptions. No one really standing out in Jamal Lewis’ absence just yet.
• I’d almost forgotten about Darren Sproles as a reasonable option for fantasy owners, and he only has four touches through the early 3rd quarter, but he’s got 45 total yards, and is in the endzone on a long reception. Looking @ the replay he still runs awfully fast.]
• Antonio Gates is following up a 2 TD performance last week with a very impressive effort against the Browns, through 2.5 quarters he has 8 catches and 167! yards. LT hasn’t done much, but he benefitted from a Gates led drive and plunged in for a 4 yard score (marking 9 straight years of double digit TDs to start a career, the only back ever to do so).
• Brady Quinn has a 4th quarter touchdown pass to Harrison and he’s not playing altogether bad, but the Browns trail as per usual.
• Jerome Harrison has only rushed for an average of 3.5 but has 6 catches for 60 yards and 2 of Quinn’s 3 tds.
• While there was never any real doubt that San Diego would come away with this one, their defense had a mini meltdown in the 4th quarter and the Browns made a game of it. That won’t do against tough teams leading to the playoffs.
• Quinn finished with 271 passing yards and 3 tds. Rivers threw for 373 and 2.
• Tomlinson 20-64-TD and 21 receiving yards.

Cowboys vs. Giants

• It feels early like we’re going to see heavy doses of Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber.
• Roy Williams has still looked a bit shaky for the Cowboys, but he did a good job getting around Corey Webster on a short yardage TD late in the 1st half.
• Hakeem Nicks made a great play coming back to the ball and getting around Terrence Newman to get the Giants back in it with just under 2 minutes left in the 1st half.
• Osi Umenyiora who was on the bench to start this contest, had a huge return on a Barber fumble to get the Giants the ball back with time on the clock.
• Jacobs would later plow it in from 2 yards out, and the half ends with the Giants up 14-10, a pretty surprising turn of events. Dallas has dominated time of possession, but the score doesn’t lie.
• Witten has been very involved in the first half. (7-81 and a great sideline catch).
• Miles Austin has been moved around and at least is getting some looks, including a sneaky catch with 6 seconds on the clock to give Folk a shot from 57 yards. No dice, but it was impressive to get the clock stopped so quickly.
• The Giants continued to move the ball well into the 2nd half, but I wasn’t really surprised on the Eli interception. Jenkins picked him off in the endzone after Manning heaved one off his back foot.
• Roy Williams caught his 2nd TD on a fake toss to Miles Austin (lined up in the backfield) and everyone bit. Williams was very open in the middle.
• Brandon Jacobs, in his first such play of the season makes a catch out of the backfield and beats everybody down the sideline, just squeaking in for a 74 yard (career long play) TD.
• Felix Jones is doing very little with his 2nd half touches. Barber wasn’t doing much either, but I’m surprised to see him getting all the work right now.
• Nick Folk is 50% on his last 10 field goals after a 42 yard miss.
• On a fairly routine punt with the Cowboys down 7 Hakeem Nicks managed his 2nd all purpose TD of the game – 79 yarder, the 1st punt/kick return for TD all year for the Giants.
• Romo’s failed pass to Marion Barber should have been an easy completion on 4th down. It was a terrible low pass, and gave his receiver no chance to make forward progress.
• Say this for the NFC East though, I’m done saying no one wants it. While the Cowboys had a chance to put the division away, or at least remove the Giants from the hunt today, all 3 (and even the Redskins I guess) remaining teams played with passion today.
• Miles Austin’s 22 yard touchdown late made the game interesting, and took him from an impressive fantasy day to a whopper – good for 16 points.
• Jason Witten also had a big day with 14 catches for 156 yards. Roy Williams had 6-60 and the 2 scores.
• Tony Romo played great, the Cowboys lost another December game, but was 41/55 for 395 and 3 tds.
• Steve Smith was once again the focal point of the NY pass attack with 110 receiving yards.

49ers vs. Seahawks

• The 9ers moved the ball well after a recovery of a muffed punt, but stalled out on 1st and goal, and missed a 4th and goal try from the one (lots of contact from Leroy Hill on the D) but the Seahawks did well on D for the stand.
• 49ers very quickly turn it around though, forcing a 3 and out and then capping a brief drive with a 33 yard Smith-to-you-know-who (Vernon Davis) pass.
• Not to be outdone the 49ers had a fumble on a punt of their own, and Hasslebeck soon found Branch for a 7 yard score.
• After most fantasy advisors (myself included) said to forget about Forsett this week with Jones back and the rookie ailing, he’s managed to find the end zone. The carries are going Jones’ way, but Justin has the 8 yard reception.
• Davis was again involved in the 49ers response. The Smith TD went to Morgan, but he had a 42 yard reception to set it up.
• Frank Gore has had very little work in this one, but a 4th quarter fumble led to a Seahawks field goal and the 49ers are down 3 late.
• Another game decided by a field goal as Mare’s chip with no time left gives the Seahawks the victory.
• Julius Jones didn’t do enough to convince me that he’s worth starting over Justin Forsett (20-67, 5 cathes for -3). Forsett didn’t do much either, but he was hurt and didn’t have many chances.
• Houshmandzadeh was plenty quiet, again.
• Smith went 300 plus and had 2 tds. Vernon Davis was a monster with 111 and a TD. Crabtree and Morgan also had 6 catches, but Morgan got the TD.
• Frank Gore (62 total yards and a fumble lost) was way underused.

From hammer: Charles, Forsrtt, Hightower, for my #3 W/R i have T.Jones & MJD 1&2?

For a while it was looking like Julius Jones would be back for the Seahawks in this one, but he’s still very questionable – and at this point even if he plays I think Forsett will cut into his carries. If Forsett is the every down back you’ve got to start him against the Rams.

If Jones does play, you’re probably better off starting Charles. The Chargers are beatable on the ground and he got some numbers against the Steelers top ranked rush D last week.

Hightower should be able to move the ball against Tennessee, but he won’t see the volume of the other two (assuming Forsett is the sole back) and thus should sit behind them.

From Tyler P: charles sproles or forsett playing SD defense pick 2?

Charles and Forsett. Sproles doesn’t see enough attention of late to be useful this week, even against the Chiefs. I like Charles and Forsett – regardless of Jones’ status.

From Thom: WR: Choose 2 from: SSmith (CAR), Crabtree, Chambers. RB: Choose 1: Mendenhall, Bernard Scott

I like Chambers as the lead guy in KC. They have to throw the ball somewhere, and its been going his way since he arrived. He’ll be sure to bring his best against the Chargers this week, after their unceremonious dismissal of him a few weeks back.

Next up I like Crabtree coming off his first career TD last week.He gets a Jaguars D (and a cornerback matchup) that allowed Terrell Owens 9 catches for 197 last week, he’s a must start based on the matchup.

It’s hard to recommend sitting Smith, but he’s facing a tough Jets pass D and a top cover corner this week. Expect the Jets to really focus on shutting him down in Week 12 to put the pressure on Jake Delhomme.

Mendenhall could get shut down against the Ravens this week, as he’s been kind of negated in tough matchups this year. The Ravens will be able to devote extra staff to the task of shutting down the sophomore RB as Dennis Dixon looks to start at QB and may struggle to hit his receivers.

If Benson doesn’t play, Scott is definitely the start against the woeful Browns, but if not, Benson should get most of the workload and Scott becomes a much less attractive option – keep an eye on his status heading up to gametime.

From Thomas R: I start 2 runningbacks and 3 recievers. My recievers are: Randy Moss Vs. Saints, Wes Welker Vs. Saints, Roddy White Vs. Buccaneers, and Anquan Boldin Vs. Titans. My runningbacks are: Frank Gore Vs. Jaguars, Ricky Williams Vs. Bills, and Cedric Benson Vs. Browns. Who do I start?????

You have an excellent team, at these spots anyway, tough calls.

I’d start Moss against an ailing Saints secondary, and Im half inclined to start Welker too, but wouldn’t want to lean too heavily on the two of them in that game.

That said, both Boldin and White have great matchups this week, but the Titans are playing better football than their defensive ranking would suggets, so I’d go with White who should blow up the Bucs secondary.

At RB I’d start Gore and Williams. The Jags can’t stop anyone rushing or passing and the Bills are miserable against the run.

If Benson was 100% it might be a different story, but even still, the Bills are somehow worse against the runs than the Browns.

From Straight Up: Pick Two Please: Chris Johnson, LT, Cedric Benson or LeSean McCoy?

I assume you’re starting Johnson by default.

If not, you should be. Regardless of matchup this guy is a beast, especially with Young in the lineup and creating new holes for him.

Then, I think it’s LT who draws the 27th ranked Chiefs run defense and has had a nose for the endzone of late.

If Benson were healthy, I’d like him very much against the Browns – keep an eye on his status tomorrow morning, but even if he does start he may not see all the reps, knowing that Scott has been fairly successful filling in, so he’s more of a question mark than LT2.

McCoy gets a Redskins D that wasn’t very good even with Haynesworth in the lineup, and it looks like their plug in the middle may not start. He should post points as well, but its hard to know how the Eagles will gameplan in this one, and I still like Tomlinson’s matchup.

From Kyle: Chambers or Owens?

I like Chambers going against his former team.

San Diego only allows around 200 passing yards, and just over 1 passing touchdown per game, but Chambers is the top threat in the KC pass game, and should get lots of chances.

Owens has stepped it up in recent weeks, but its hard to envision anyone in the Bills pass attack as a consistent threat. As good as Owens played, I’m thinking that it may have been a product of the matchup against the Jaguars than a sign of a coming resurgence.

From Chris: mendenhall vs balt with Ben out…..or Jamaal charles at SD?

It’s hard to know what Roethlisberger missing this one means for Mendenhall.

Pittsburgh will try to get him going early, to take the pressure off Dennis Dixon in his first career action, but Baltimore will be more focused on shutting him down knowing that Dixon doesn’t offer the same threat as Roethlisberger. I guess that sort of balances and the Ravens only yield 3.5 YPC and 6 rushing touchdowns. That’s not exactly a tantalizing matchup.

Charles, meanwhile, has done a pretty impressive job taking over the starting position for the Chiefs. The Chargers meanwhile give up 4.2 YPC and almost 120 yards per game. They’ve also only allowed 7 rushing scores, but if neither back has a great shot of getting into the end zone I think you’re best to start the only who should be able to move it between the 20s.

Start Charles.

From Dre: Im in a standard PPR league. Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, or Rock Cartwright? Matt Schaub or Matt Ryan?

You can’t start Forte against the Vikings, after watching the Bears’ output last week. I expect things to improve for Chicago this week, but Forte won’t do much running the ball. He may contribute in the pass game, but not enough to justify.

I like Charles better than Cartwright based on a) talent and b) matchup.

I’d start Schaub over Ryan. Ryan should play well this week against Tampa Bay, but I don’t think you can sit Schaub, even against a tough Indy pass defense. The Texans QB has been pretty consistent this year, and will come out with something to prove in a must win game for them against the Colts.

Cardinals vs. Rams

• At half Warner has thrown for 200+, 2 Tds and the Cardinals have a commanding lead – unfortunately, Warner left a little early to an apparent head injury and Matt Leinart is in the game at half.
• Both Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower are rushing well, Hightower with the better yardage, but Wells in the end zone.
• Boldin leads receivers with 96 yards and a score, but Fitzgerald isn’t far behind with 71 and the other touchdown.
• Leinart came out to start the 2nd half.
• Another week at the office for Steven Jackson. 23 carries, over 100 yards, and a score – while the rest of the Rams do nothing to help.
• The Cardinals have no rhythm with Matt Leinart in their offense. He’s not making too many negative plays, but nothing is clicking. Leinart finished 10/14 but the Cardinals finished with 0 2nd half points, and almost collapsed – the game got harder for the Cardinals defense when they couldn’t sustain any offensive momentum, either.
• Good day for all skill players on the Cardinals, even Warner who only played a half. 110 yards rushing for Hightower, and 74 and a score for Wells. Everyone but Breaston flourished, he was held off the score sheet.

Chargers vs. Broncos

• Chris Simms didn’t get a lot of work before the Broncos turned to the injured Kyle Orton. Simms was 2/4 for 10 and Orton came in, completed his first 3 passes for 58 yards, but was intercepted as the half ended.
• Vincent Jackson is back to form on the other side, and Rivers only has 1 incompletion in the first half.
• Tomlinson rushing for a mild average again with 11 carries for 34.
• Simms and Moreno have both put the ball on the ground.
• With a 13-0 halftime lead the Chargers seem to have a pretty good handle on this key division matchup.
• Orton is limping around pretty good out there, but the Broncos are definitely a better football team with him on the field.
• LT made a nice toss back to quarterback Philip Rivers on a lateral that set up a 23 yard near touchdown pass to Antonio Gates. LT then took it in from 1 yards out, he earned the short touchdown, and did a good job to stay on his feet.
• The Chargers made a pretty definitive statement in this one, they are now the class of the AFC West. Tomlinson rushed for a 3.6 average (73 yards) and a score. Rivers wasn’t asked to pass much in the 2nd half, and finished with only 145 yards and a score.
• Nothing really doing for the Broncos, the injured Orton was not all that impressive, but its clear that him playing at half strength is better for the Broncos than Simms at full strength. Moreno put together an impressive average with 10-80, but he lost a fumble.

Jets vs. Patriots

• New York isn’t doing anything productive on offense. At one point late in the 2nd quarter the Patriots had 24 poitns and the Jets had 24 total yards. Sanchez is 2/9 and has been picked twice.
• The Jets did score late on a blocked punt, to make the game 24-7 going into half.
• Maroney got his traditional short yardage plunge into the end zone. Welker is a receiving force with Revis on Moss, and he’s also added 11 yards on a reverse. Moss has 4 catches for 21 and a score.
• Brady looks poised with 181 and a passing touchdown.
• Welker is catching everything, on the last drive with 55 seconds left he added 2 for 38 and sits at 139 receiving yards on 8 grabs.
• CBS Announcing Crew: “Mark Sanchez is an all weather quarterback” after watching him complete his 5th pass of the day, and knowing he played college ball in California.
• Brady and Manning are both now over 3000 yards passing on the season.
• New England led the whole way, and it was never really in doubt. Good day from their D/bad day from Sanchez who finished with 4 picks, and 5 total turnovers. He was 8/21 for 146.
• Jerricho Cotchery had a big statistical day, only 3 catches but he had 80+ yards and a score. Thomas Jones eclipsed 100 yards rushing on 21 attempts.
• For the Patriots: Brady threw for 300+ for the 5th straight game (1 shy of an NFL record) and Wes Welker went to work. He had 15 catches for 192. Moss was 5-34-TD. A week after Faulk took over in the running game Maroney handled almost all the rushing duties and carried 22 times for 77 yards and 2 TDs. Faulk did contribute with 4 catches for 53. Leigh Bodden had 3 interceptions.

Bengals vs. Raiders

• If only very small Bruce Gradkowski appears to be an upgrade over Jamarcus Russell. He’s 9/15 with a score at half.
• Carson Palmer has two rushing TDs and is 8/10 passing – impressively, OchoCinco has picked up 55 first half yards against the Raiders’ corners.
• Scott is rushing for about 3 YPC, nothing too impressive against the Raiders. He’s added 2 grabs for 28.
• Nevermind, with a 61 yard third quarter rush he’s now rushing for a very healthy average, and was/is a useful fantasy play.
• On 3rd and goal from the Raiders one I half expected Palmer to plunge in for his 3rd rushing score. Instead, he took an 18 yard sack. A bit of a different result, and the Bengals settle for 3. enjoy watching Graham miss a 37 yard attempt.
• No worries though, the Bengals took the ball back on a Bush fumble and took it 38 yards to the Raider red zone. Graham hit from 25 yards, and now its 17-10.
• In a shocking twist, the Bengals allowed a Gradkowski td throw, and then fumbled the ensuing kickoff, allowing a field goal and losing 20-17 in the first game of the Bruce G era.
• Scott took advantage of the matchup with 119 yards rushing. Larry Johnson rushed the ball twice for 5.
• Palmer threw an interception on a hail mary on the game’s final play, and aside from the rush scores, his stats were worse than the Raider QBs. A shocking loss.

 

Week 11 Featured Games

Colts vs. Ravens

Overview: Fresh off an impressive (if indecisive) come from behind victory over the Patriots the 9-0 Colts head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. We all know that the Ravens can beat the league’s poorer teams (a 16-0 victory over the Browns wasn’t all that impressive, frankly) but to be seen as a legit playoff contender as the season rolls on the Ravens will have to start winning games against stiffer competition. They get their chance to do that, and then some, against the undefeated Colts. The Colts have definitely looked beatable over the past 3 weeks (shakey wins over Houston, San Fran and New England). Offensively, the Colts should match up well against the Colts. While Indianapolis boasts a pretty impressive pass defense (214 YPG allowed – inflated by Brady’s 375 in week 10) they have struggled at times to stop the run, and to stop third down conversions (44.7%). If Baltimore is able to get Ray Rice involved running the ball, and as a 3rd down option in the pass attack, they should be able to generate some scoring opportunities. Joe Flacco has played his best football at home, and will need to be consistently effective against a Colts secondary that is down a few bodies. Meanwhile, Peyton draws a tough Baltimore defense allowing just a hair over 300 total yards per game, ranked 7th in the league. Don’t expect Manning to post poor numbers, but he could struggle to live up to his usual form against the Ravens.

Key Players: Rice is the key to the Ravens offense in any given week – in games where they have been aware of this, the team has flourished, when they’ve tried to force throws, etc. they have not. If Rice can consistently move the ball it will go a long way towards the Ravens success. Ray Lewis will have to match minds on the field with Manning if he hopes to keep up with the Colts in no huddle offense, the entire Ravens D will have to prove that the shutout of the Browns was more about team success than opponent ineptitude. Joseph Addai continues to find a way to put points on the board, he didn’t have alot of opportunities in Week 10 but was in the end zone twice, and he’ll be in tough to match the output of Rice on the other side of the field.

Pick:

 Chargers vs. Broncos

 

Overview: Just three weeks ago it would have been hard to predict that the winner of this game would walk away the clear cut AFC West leader, however, that’s what we get in this week 11 matchup. The Chargers have been riding a hot streak of late, with a fairly balanced offensive attack and a much sharper defense, while the Broncos are on a slide. A 4th straight loss at the hands of the Chargers puts their playoff run in jeopardy. When these teams last met just over a month ago it looked like the teams were headed in opposite directions, with the Broncos walking away with an 11 point victory. The Chargers bring a rush attack that is averaging only 75 yards per game into Denver against a defense that still ranks pretty well against the run despite its recent issues. Rivers can be expected to put together a solid game through the air, but if the Chargers don’t field a better rush attack then they did the last time these two teams met they might find themselves in trouble.

Key Players: Kyle Orton’s health will go a long way to determining the Broncos success. If Chris Simms is thrust into the starters role (as is expected at this point) he may do a little better than his sub-25% completion percentage in relief in week 10, but can’t be expected to effectively lead the Broncos offense. If vintage LT shows up this week he has an opportunity to take over the game against a Broncos defense that has struggled of late. His 96 yards and 2 scores last week came against a seemingly tough matchup in Philadelphia and he will look to translate that success into this week’s matchup.

Pick:

Jets vs. Patriots

Overview: The Patriots are coming off a tough loss after which their coach (unjustly?) has been criticized reamed by media, former players, and anyone with an opinion on football. Add to that the fact that the Jets beat the Patriots in New York and then brazenly celebrated afterwards the last time these two teams met and the Patriots should have little trouble getting motivated for this game. The Jets lost narrowly (24-22 to the Jaguars) last week as well, and will need a win to cling to their faint playoff hopes (and reverse their own share of criticism levelled at the team that is 1-5 in their last six games). The Jets defense allow the 3rd lowest yards per game in the league, and hold opponents to an impressive 17.6 points per game. Of course, the Patriots themselves are 3rd in the league in scoring defense and racked up 34 points against the top team in the league in that category last week.

Key Players: When these two teams met in week 2 the Patriots failed to record an offensive touchdown. That was Brady’s 2nd game back after missing nearly all of 2008 with a knee injury, and Wes Welker was unavailable for the Patriots. In recent weeks Brady has clearly gotten back up to speed (throwing for 300+ in 4 straight) and Wes Welker has resumed his usual integral role in the Patriots offense. With these two players producing at their best, the Patriots will be much harder to contain in Week 11. Darrelle Revis really started getting attention as a shutdown corner when he limited Randy Moss to 4 catches for 24 yards in their week 2 matchup. How these two match up in Week 11 could go a long way to determining the success of their respective teams. Mark Sanchez is pleased to have Jerricho Cotchery back on the field and performing well, taking some of the pressure of him to force balls to other receivers. Cotchery will have to be open to give his young quarterback a consistent option in the receiving game.

Pick:

Week 11 Picks

Panthers vs. Dolphins

Redskins vs. Cowboys

Browns vs. Lions

Bills vs. Jaguars

Steelers vs. Chiefs

Seahawks vs. Vikings

Falcons vs. Giants

Saints vs. Bucs

 

Cardinals vs. Rams

Bengals vs. Raiders

Eagles vs. Bears

Titans vs. Texans

1. Indianapolis Colts (9-0)(2) – Colts flip back on top. While the focus is on ‘the play call’ in their win over the Pats the fact remains that the ponies took out their top AFC competition and showed guts in coming back.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-0)(1) – The Saints keep flirting with disaster, but find a way to win. They have to lose a game eventually, don’t they? Different RB gets in the mix every week. Week 10 was Bush’s turn.
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-1)(3) – Vikings continue to pillage. Sidney Rice leads an impressive receiver group. Their talent hasn’t changed, but no way we’d have noticed with Jackson/Rosenfels tossing the ball.
4. New England Patriots (6-3)(4) – Nearly took out the undefeated Colts, in fact, they beat them for 50 minutes. Deserve some credit for that, regardless of your opinion on Belichick’s call. My sense is that these teams will meet again…
5. Cincinnati Bengals (7-2)(7) – Have now run the table in the AFC North (yes, I did intentionally overlook the week 12 matchup vs. Cleveland) and own a key division tiebreaker. This team may/should get AFCs 2^nd playoff bye.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)(5) – Shut down by the Bengals and may lose Polamalu again. Team needs to bend, not break if he’s out for an extended period.
7. San Diego Chargers (6-3)(10) – Chargers make a big leap for 2^nd straight week after beating the Eagles. Defense gave up some yardage, but shut them down where it counted and the offense continues to roll. I know we already overhyped the ‘is LT back’ question earlier this year, but if he can produce like he did last Sunday this team is dangerous.
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-3)(11) – Cardinals into the top 10 as their defense is holding steady (good enough production) and their offensive attack continues to impress. They have a pretty good schedule from here on out, and could finish strong – particularly if Wells and Hightower continue to take advantage of what the defense gives them.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)(6) – Looked to be rolling, but with teams keying on Miles Austin the pass attack is losing some zip, and they seem to be forgetting about their running backs. Some offensive balance (spreading between receivers and pass/run split) should get them back on track.
10. Denver Broncos (6-3)(8) – It’s not looking so good in Denver. Remember when this team pulled out a stunning, hard fought victory over the Patriots. Seems like a distant memory, right now they are struggling to stay afloat – they’ll miss Orton if he’s out any significant amount of time.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)(9) –You shouldn’t lose most games where your quarterback throws for 450 yards, but, if you can’t get it done in the red zone and you don’t rush the ball at all, you’re going to have problems. Westbrook likely done for the season, can McCoy carry the load?
12. New York Giants (5-4)(13) – Needs to have made productive use of their Week 10 bye, we’ll see going forward.
13. Green Bay Packers (5-4)(17) – This team is hard to understand. Have looked lost at time, but were dominant (defensively at least) against the Cowboys in Week 10. If they play like that team the rest of the year, they should be playoff bound.
14. Atlanta Falcons (5-4)(12) – Loss of Turner (for at least a few weeks?) puts increased pressure on Matt Ryan to straighten things out. The coaching staff thinks he can do it. Falcons need to go on a run to keep playoff hopes alive.
15. Houston Texans (5-4)(14) – Come out of week 10 bye and have to slow down the resurgent Titans. Schaub should be able to hang a few points on the secondary, but that unit is playing well in recent weeks. 6-4 would look a lot better than 5-5.
16. Baltimore Ravens (5-4)(15) – Yeah they won, but did this team really look that impressive vs. the Browns. Defense held strong, and a shut out is impressive regardless, but the Browns have only 5 offensive TDs all year – lets not over sell this performance.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) (21) – Impressive win over struggling Jets, heads up play by MJD. They’ve still got a shot but are in the muddled middle right now.
18. Carolina Panthers (4-5)(20) – Delhomme and Smith hooking up lately, and the rush attack is plugging along. Defense performing well. There is still a ‘nervous’ feel to their success, but the Panthers are at worst an average football team. Given the start to the season, I think they’d settle for that designation.
19. Tennessee Titans (3-6)(22) – I really like the way this team is playing right now. Chris Johnson is unstoppable, and its taking some pressure off Young. Young’s play has helped Johnson too, offense working well, defense getting healthy. You get the feeling if they’d won even one or two of the first six they’d be in the hunt.
20. New York Jets (4-5)(16) – 1 win in last 6, if I were Rex Ryan I’d cry too.
21. San Francisco 49ers (4-5)(18) – They beat the Bears in Week 10 and the defense looked great, but any time you get 5 turnovers and can only put 10 points on the board (against a so-so defense, no less) there are issues on offense.
22. Chicago Bears (4-5)(19) – Another primetime game in Week 10, another turnover fest from Cutler. Next on the schedule: Eagles D on Sunday night. Love Cutler as a quarterback, but this situation is not playing out that well.
23. Miami Dolphins (4-5)(23) – Loss of Brown will hurt, Williams is playing well and should perform, but its just one guy to focus on stopping not two. (I’m referring to the whole offense here, unfortunately, not just the rush attack).
24. Washington Redskins (3-6)(26) – If Orton stayed in the game they probably lose to the Broncos last week (Simms’ 3-13 wasn’t exactly a game winning performance), but the Redskins put up 31 and beat a 6-2 team. Betts looked good running the ball.
25. Seattle Seahawks (3-6)(25) – Forsett could do some damage, but this team is going nowhere fast. Not particularly underwhelming in any one category, but not impressive anywhere either.
26. Buffalo Bills (3-6)(24) – Somewhat surprised it was Bud Adams flipping the bird not Bills fans (and not Dick Juaron on his way out the door). Speaking of birds, rookie Jarius is the only bright spot.  QB change won’t help, coaching change unlikely to either.
27. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7)(28) – So, they beat the Raiders find a viable starting RB, and have some small degree of momentum then their number one receiver gets suspended for most of what’s left of the season. Somehow Chris Chambers is a #1 receiver again by default.
28. St. Louis Rams (1-8)(30) – Credit the Rams for hanging with the Saints. Jackson was impressive as always, but Bulger also outplayed Brees. They may have some victories left.
29. Oakland Raiders (2-7)(27) – Very Raiderlike effort vs. the Chiefs. Expect their general Raiderness to continue.
30. Detroit Lions (1-8)(29) – Calvin Johnson caught 8 balls and in 50+ attempts the opposing defense caught none of Stafford’s pass attempts. That’s all the good news.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)(31) – Josh Freeman is showing that he can lead this team. The Bucs have looked much more impressive all around with him on the field.
32. Cleveland Browns (1-8)(32) – Whether its Anderson, Quinn or anyone on the roster behind centre don’t expect much out of the Browns offense. The Ravens were boring too, but watching MNF last week was one of the hardest things I’ve ever done.

Start & Sit

Via email from David T.: Assuming Brian Westbrook starts, should I still use LeSean McCoy at my flex spot considering he and Westy might split carries or Westy might get hurt again? Or should I scrap McCoy and start Santana Moss at the flex?

I picked McCoy.

Well, there wasn’t much to see here. Santana Moss was held to minimal yardage and impact despite the fact that the Redskins put up 31 points against the Broncos. Moss had 2 catches from 8 yards. 0 points.

LeSean McCoy had 6 touches, but he didn’t do much either in a game where Andy Reid seemed to forget he had runningbacks. 3 rushes for 5 yards, 3 catches for 18 good enough for 1 point.

Result: Win (a very weak one).

Via email from J. Winslow: Pick 2 (I can’t believe I’m thinking about putting MJD on the bench, but the matchups are too juicy): MJD vs. NYJ, Thomas Jones vs. Jax, Pierre Thomas vs. StL.

I picked MJD and Jones.

Jones-Drew performed as expected, in fact, were it not for his selfless team first act late in the game, he’d have had two scores. Fantasy owners will have to settle for 145 total yards, and one score, good enough for 20 points.

Jones put in a workmanlike performance as the Jets fell to the lowly Jaguars. He rushed 21 times for 77 yards and found the end zone. 13 points.

Pierre Thomas (courtesy of Sean Payton) introduced us to the dangers of using the Saints running game. The bulk of the work amongst the trio of talented backs is usually given to Thomas, but it can’t be trusted to fall that way. This week Reggie Bush racked up the fantasy numbers while Thomas only had 42 total yards on 12 touches and 3 fantasy points.

Result: Win 

Pick 1 (trust Megatron? or go w/ Burleson’s steady numbers? or hope Bowe slaughters the Raiders w/ Chambers spreading Asomugha?): Calvin Johnson vs. Min, Nate Burleson vs. Ari, Dwayne Bowe vs. Oak.

BTW – we run a .5 PPR

I picked Johnson.

Johnson was heavily targeted in a game where Matt Stafford dropped back 50+ times (and wasn’t intercepted!) and wound up with 8 catches for 84 yards – the kind of performance his fantasy owners were hoping for when they drafted Megatron. 80 yards plus 4 reception points is good for a dozen.

Bowe was typically consistent even against the tough Raiders pass D and wound up with 6 catches for 91 yards, neither player found the end zone, and it appears that Bowe’s stat line was boosted by the use of performance enhancing drugs. He’s been suspended 4 games. He gets 3 points for receptions and ends up with 12 as well.

Burleson was targeted in this game, but was held off the score sheet against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in Arizona.

Result: Tie

Via email from Michael J: I have Floyd and Chambers but Meachem is FA.  Which would be my best WR3 option in a traditional league?  If Meachem which of the other 2 should I drop?  Im starting Jennings and Sims-Walker as WR1 and WR2.

I picked Meachem.

I suggested a drop of Chris Chambers to do so, and Chambers played ok with 3 catches for 60 yards. It looks like he’s in for a boost in targets from Matt Cassel, at least over the next month while Dwayne Bowe takes a league imposed break.

Having said that, Meachem was worth the add. He only had one catch, but it was a 27 yard TD and he added 41 rushing yards, for 12 points.

Floyd had 3 catches for 45 but is tough to start because you’re always going to be gambling for one long pass to make your fantasy day.

Result: Win

From Frank: Jason campbell or CHad hene for week 10 QB?

I picked Henne.

Neither QB overwhelmed (as was kind of expected) with each getting 1 td and 7 points off yardage in traditional leagues. Campbell threw for slightly more yards, and was a hair more accurate (17/26 vs. 17/31) and Henne had an interception, which left him with 11 points to Campbell’s 13.

Result: Loss

I know we wore out the Mike sims walker questions, but MSM or Roy williams?

I picked Sims-Walker.

I stuck with MSW more out of distrust for Roy Williams than belief that he could exploit the matchup.

Surprisingly, the Jets did not use Revis to cover Sims-Walker in the first half and he had 40+ receiving yards and a score. After Revis blanketed him he had 4 yards the rest of the day. MSW still finished with a respectable 49 yards on 3 catches and a TD, 10 points.

Williams, meanwhile, continued to back up his comments from a few weeks back. With defenses double teaming Miles Austin, he’s been consistently open for Romo. There are still a few drops, and Williams fumbled away a long reception this week, but he’s looking like he’s worth using in fantasy going forward. Williams had 5 catches for 105, a TD, and the lost fumble, good for 14 points.

Result: Loss

From Jerry G: In a 12 team ppr .. T Hightower or M Lynch for my flex spot??

I picked Hightower.

Beanie Wells owned the ground game for Arizona in this one, with Hightower contributing only 58 yards on 15 touches. 5 points to Beanie’s 23.

Marshawn Lynch didn’t do much either, with 9 rushes for 37 yards and 4 catches for 18, good for 4 points. Fred Jackson got the weekly gadget play touchdown for the Bills this week (a 27 yard pass, so Lynch misses out there, perhaps he’ll score on a hidden ball trick next week). 4 points.

Result: Win

From marklar: i need two people one for WR and the other in flex spot: Calvin Johnson Anquan Boldin Dwayne Bowe Shonn Greene Tony Gonzalez or Jason Witten

I picked Johnson and Boldin.

Jason Witten had a target in the end zone and was relied on late, but posted a sub-50 yardage total again this week, with 5 catches for 47.

Bowe had 6 grabs for 91 as discussed above.

Greene only touched the ball twice, he got 26 yards doing so, which is great on the field but not so good in fantasy.

Gonzalez was involved in the Atlanta pass game again with 6 catches for 67 yards.

Calvin Johnson had a semi-rebound week with 8 catches for 84 and Boldin got into the fray in Arizona, as expected, with 8 for 105. Good for 8 and 10 points respectively.

Result: Win (18 of possible 19)

Week 10 Start and Sit Results: 5-2-1.

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From Matt: start addai or benson?

I picked Benson.

I wasn’t the only stubborn fantasy prognosticator that suggested Benson was a must start in all formats, and no doubt he would have produced against the Steelers in a low scoring affair where moving the ball through the air was difficult, but Benson left early with an injury (that shouldn’t keep him out of week 11) and finished with only 7 carries for 22 yards.

Addai, Mr. Fantasy Consistency, had another fantasy stat line, and was fairly useful for the Colts despite their pass heavy approach. 10 carries for 41 yards and 2 catches for 27 with a TD each way was good for 18 fantasy points.

Result: Loss

I can start one of the following… please help!: I have one last WR/TE spot open. My league gives good points for return yardage. Who would you start in the final spot? SIDNEY RICE,
JOSH CRIBBS, TONY GONZALES, EDDIE ROYAL, MIKE WILLIAMS

I picked Rice.

Sir Sidney made it easy for me this week with a dominant performance against the Lions. With 7 catches for 201 yards, and a long of 57, Rice racked up 20 points in standard scoring leagues.

The others had around 10 points between them.

Result: Win

From Gobrowns: LT vs Phi or Betts Vs Den in a .5 PPR?

I picked Betts.

I had sworn off recommending LT in the previous week’s Take me to Task, and I stuck to my guns.

Turns out it was a big mistake. Tomlinson looked like his former self, attacking the line and running with enthusiasm. He had 24 carries for 96 yards and a couple of scores. The Chargers will take that 4.0 average from him from here on out quite gladly, as will his fantasy owners. He finished with 21 points.

Betts did his part with a strong game but couldn’t keep up with LT. He had 114 yards on 26 carries including a 40+ yard scoring play and finished with 17 points.

ryan craft: quick question…who to start in place of mike sims walker: james jones, robert meachem, or ugh santana moss

I picked Sims-Walker.

I couldn’t recommend any of the options to start over MSW despite the matchup, and he backed me up against the Jets. As discussed his 3-49-TD performance was hardly dominant, but definitely serviceable against a tough Jets pass D. It wasn’t quite enough, however.

Jones wasn’t as involved as he had been in recent weeks with 3 catches for 17 yards.

Moss disappointed, as discussed.

And, also as discussed, Meachem chipped in with a dozen fantasy points on 68 total yards and a score.

Result: Loss

From Matthew R: Ok who and Why? Flex spot. Moroney projected decent against Ind. Or Marshall (who is listed as probable and not consistent) against Was.

I picked Maroney.

He wasn’t overwhelming against the Colts but he did find his way into the endzone and added 46 total yards, good for 10 fantasy points.

Meanwhile, the Redskins forgot to cover Brandon Marshall leaving him wide open on TDs of 40 and 75 yards. It couldn’t get much easier for Marshall or more ruinous for my fantasy pick. He finished with 5 catches for 134 and 2 scores. 25 points.

Result: Loss

From David C: NO PPR which RB: Addai vs. NE or Mendenhall vs. Cin

I picked Mendenhall.

Going with the assumption that Mendenhall proved that he was matchup proof against the Broncos last week (rather than the Broncos were in the middle of a disappointing slide) I figured Mendenhall would similarly beat up the Bengals rush D, problem is, they came to play this week. Mendenhall carried 13 times for 36 yards and added 1 catch for 5, 3 fantasy points.

Addai had 18.

Result: Loss

Jordan: Who should I start at flex spot, Lt, Shonn Greene, or Felix Jones? What about WR2 Maclin or austin collie?

I picked Greene and Collie.

Starting Betts over LT was a reasonable position given my displeasure with the future HOFers play over the course of the season, but starting a backup RB over him was not. Greene only had 2 touches, as discussed and didn’t help. LT had 24 and made the most of them.

Collie pitched in with 6 catches and 45 yards against the Pats but Maclin benefitted from a pass heavy offensive philosophy in Philly and hauled in 6 catches for 76 yards (of McNabb’s 450) and a score.

Result: Loss, Loss

Drew: I need one flex RB in a PPR league out of Tashard Choice, Jamaal Charles, or Mike Bell.

Thanks for your help!

I picked Charles.

Based on volume he was the only logical choice and the new KC starter did not disappoint. He had 103 rushing yards on 18 carries, 4 catches for 14 and a score. Good for 17 points.

Choice rarely touched the ball and Bell went 8-30.

Result: Win

ryan craft:  Also, for my running back question as my number 2 Jamaal Charles, or Corell Buckhalter?

I picked Charles.

Again, this was a question of volume more than anything else. Buckhalter clearly took a backseat to Knowshon Moreno in this one and the situation can be expected to play out that way until further notice.

Buckhalter carried twice for 11.

Result: Win

Andrew: Ok, I got C Johnson and L. Mahrony starting. for flex should I go with LT, J Jones, or B Edwards? At WR I also have Colston and M Sims Walker…do I sit MSW?

Thanks

I picked Colston and Edwards to start.

Both players lost fumbles leaving Colston who had only 17 yards receiving with negative fantasy production on the day and Edwards who chipped in with 3 catches for 79 yards posting a 5 spot.

Sims walker scored, and LT did so twice, making them the clear winners here.

Result: Loss

From KN: Need help picking 2 WR and a FLEX spot. Bouldin, Edwards, Sims-Walker, Burleson, Manningham, and McCoy.

I picked Boldin, Burleson and Edwards.

Boldin performed as expected coming back from injury with 10 fantasy points.

Burleson was shut out. The rest of the players have been discussed above.

I ended with 15 of a possible 25 points, not good enough to cut it.

Result: Loss

From Matthew S: Which 3 of these 6 rbs should i start? Benson vs. PIT, Mendenhall vs. CIN, LT vs. PHI, Deangelo Williams vs. ATL, Barber vs. Gb, Ricky Williams vs. TB
Thanks…

I picked DeAngelo Williams, Benson and Mendenhall.

Picking from a group of 6 players is pretty tough for fantasy purposes, so I was prepared to give myself some leeway here, however, as discussed both backs in the AFC North showdown failed to produce, so I was way off the mark.

D. Williams didn’t get into the end zone but had a productive day for the Panthers after his starting status was in jeopardy ending with 92 yards rushing and adding 1 catch for 30. 12 points.

LT was vintage.

Ricky Williams contributed after Brown left with an ankle/foot injury and could impress again this week if Brown misses time. He had 20 carries for 102 yards.

Barber was drastically under used in the run game and finished with 37 total yards.

Result: Loss

Show: Flex: Driver, Maclin, Choice, Felix Jones

I picked Driver.

Speaking of consistency Driver has been a rock for fantasy owners this year as Green Bay’s top producing receiver, he ended with 4 catches for 50 yards and 5 points. Numbers that won’t wreck a fantasy team, but they won’t lead you to victory on their own in any given week either.

He outperformed both Dallas backs who saw very limited action (4 and 3 touches respectively), but Maclin contributed with 6 catches 76 yards and a score.

Result: Loss

Drew: Should I pick up Kolby Smith or Jamaal Charles?

I picked Charles.

There was a lot of ambiguity coming into the week about which back would prosper in the Chiefs system and how the carries would be split.

Coming out of Week 11 there should be no further question.

Smith had 9 carries that went for 12 yards.

We’ve discussed Charles’ day and although he didn’t score from the red zone (as was expected) he piled up the yardage and found his way in from 44 yards out instead.

Result: Win

From spo: Ricky Williams vs TB, Mendenhall vs CINCI, and Westbrook vs SD I need 2 please.

I picked Williams and Mendenhall.

Williams had 10 points, and Mendenhall 3. Westbrook left concussed (again, and we wish him a speedy recovery) after 28 rushing yards and 26 receiving.

Result: Win (13 of 14 points).

Warner or Favre

I picked Warner.

Both veteran QBs had solid days against beatable matchups.

Favre let Sidney Rice do the heavy lifting en route to 344 yards passing and 1 TD, good for 19 fantasy points on nfl.com.

Warner chose to spread the ball out throwing for 340 himself and adding 2 TDs. Neither QB turned the ball over. Warner finished with 25 points.

Result: Win

Celek or Shiancoe

I picked Celek.

I suggested in my response that Shiancoe was only good each week for a catch or two and you had to hope it was a touchdown. In this matchup, he made a greater contribution in terms of yardage, but it still wasn’t worth much without the score. He had 3 catches for 43 yards and 4 points.

Celek got into the mix in Philly with McNabb making viable fantasy starters out of anyone who wasn’t a running back in Week 10 finishing with 6 catches for 47 yards and a TD. 10 points.

Result: Win

MIAMI or NYJ DEF

I picked the Jets.

New York’s defense isn’t as fearsome in recent weeks as it has been, and they produced only 1 turnover and 2 sacks in this matchup, while giving up 24 points to the Jaguars. Good for 6-7 points depending on your league settings.

The Dolphins defense gave up more points than expected to QB Josh Freeman and the Bucs but managed to force one fumble and intercept the young QB, they added 2 sacks and gave up 23 points good for 8 or 9.

Result: Loss

Week 10 Rapid Fire Results: 7-11-0.

Week 10 Cumulative Record: 12-13-1.

Season to Date: 50-45-8.

Chiefs vs. Raiders

• Chris Chambers is involved again. I know its only 1 catch for 30 yards, but its still more than he was doing for the Chargers.
• Fargas has still found a way to be relevant (only 4 touches with the score) despite Bush’s return and early dominance (5-69).
• Jamaal Charles didn’t do much on his first four carries, but rewarded fantasy owners who started him with his 5th – a 44 yard TD run.
• Jamarcus Russell was sat to start the 3rd quarter in this one (finishing 9/24 – but suffering 9 drops from his receivers) but for the 2nd time in such duties Bruce Gradkowski going 4/7 and getting picked off.
• Bush had a huge day in his return with 14 rushes for 119. McFadden’s 4-11 was much less exciting.
• Dwayne Bowe turned in another steady day with 6 catches and 91 yards. Chris Chambers’ 3-60 lines proves he may end up useful in Kansas City.
• Charles went for 100+ rushing and scored a TD, proving he can handle the Lions share of the load. Kolby Smith, meanwhile, went 9-12.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

• Housh finally caught some long balls to add to his production with 2 grabs for 66 early, and Justin Forsett looks like the Seahawk back to own this week as he has the early score.
• Warner and the Cardinals are sputtering a bit on offense after a 5 TD week last week.
• On a 26 yard reception late in the 2nd half Larry Fitzgerald really made something out of nothing. Can’t tackle him with one hand, and he got ob from the middle of the field to stop the clock.
• Steve Breaston is catching everything thrown at him today.
• The Cardinals made an interesting play call on their 1st drive of the 3rd quarter, going for it on 4th and 1 from the 10, and Beanie Wells picked it all up, bruising in for the score.
• The great Beanie got in for another score with the game on the line, his 2nd of the day from 13 yards out.
• Fitzgerald and Warner hooked up on a 18 yard TD late to cement the Cardinals lead.
• Warner ended with a very solid line: 29/38 for 340 and 2 scores, Boldin went over 100 receiving yards, Beanie Wells got the bulk of the carries for the first time this season Wells got the bulk of the carries and made the most of them. He had 16 for 85 and 2 scores, and added 32 receiving yards.
• Houshmandzadeh had a huge game with 9 catches for 165 in the losing effort, and Justin Forsett broke out with 17-123 and a score. Nate Burleson was inexplicably held without a catch. and Hasslebeck unfortunately dashed the comeback with two late picks.

Cowboys vs. Packers

• Not much happening here, Packers are moving the ball and Barber has started strong for the ‘Boys, but no one in the endzone just yet.
• Roy Williams pitched in with a 42 yard 2nd quarter reception, but subsequently fumbled and lost the ball. All good though, the Cowboys sacked Rodgers twice on the next series.
• With the first half drawing to a close Mason Crosby nailed a 48 yard FG to give the Packers an exciting 3-0 lead. Miles Austin didn’t have a catch in the 1st half for the 2nd straight week, and for the second straight week I’m pissed about it.
• On Demarcus Ware’s 2nd sack of the day he just exploded through the line, no chance for Rodgers to get rid of the ball.
• Marion Barber looked good on his first few carries of the day, but they just stopped giving him the ball.
• Aaron Rodgers scored his 3rd rushing touchdown of the year on a QB sneak into the endzone, and I woke up during this game, briefly.
• On the Tony Romo fumble/Felix Jones fumble, the play was ruled non reviewable. No way the Packers should have ended up with the ball.
• Spencer Havner is a touchdown magnet, taking advantage on the field position gained on the above play, and he’s in for another Lambeau Leap.
• Dallas remembered they had a guy named Miles Austin midway through the 4th. His first catch went for 2 whole yards. He had a 15 yard catch later in the drive. Why wasn’t he getting the ball the first 3.5 quarters?… they went back to Austin again for a 4 yard gain.
• The Cowboys failed to take the opportunity to move ahead in the NFC East race Romo had a disappointing game, only getting it going when it was out of reach. They left the ball out of the hands of Marion Barber and Miles Austin, and were thus nearly shut out. Makes sense to me. Roy Williams went 5-105 with a TD but lost a fumble.
• Rodgers didn’t throw for a ton of yardage but avoided too many negative plays and had 2 touchdowns (1 on the ground).
• Grant’s 79 yards on 19 carries were pretty good against a tougher run defense.

Eagles vs. Chargers

• Vincent Jackson surprisingly absent from the score sheet early, and LT surprisingly back in the endzone. His early 3.5 ypc is still bad, but respectable.
• The Eagles aren’t doing much to respond, just yet.
• With Westbrook back (he’s not doing much 4-13) LeSean McCoy hasn’t touched the ball.
• Tomlinson got in again on a 20 yard run. Good for LT, bad for my fantasy recommendations this week.
• The Chargers will be back to AFC West favourites after this one.
• While the Eagles are doing a good job moving the ball between the twenties, the Chargers are owning them in the redzone.
• Just like last time these two teams met the Eagles completely abandoned the run and went with McNabb heaving the ball all day. The gameplan worked today, as far as McNabb is concerned (450+ yardage and he managed to not turn it over), but the Eagles fell short against the Chargers. His only interception coming as time expired in the endzone.
• The Eagles only had one timeout left to try and slow the Chargers momentum on an impressive drive that ate up a ton of clock time to nearly close this one out.
• Vincent Jackson was quieted for the first time all season with just 1 catch for 10 yards, but LT picked up his slack, rushing for nearly 100 and 2 scores, after I’d given up on him, good for the 30 y/o running back.
• Big stats across the board for the Eagles receivers, profiting from a throw first attack. Avant, Jackson, Maclin and Celek all had strong fantasy days. The running game didn’t do much, and they didn’t get much of a chance. Sadly, Westbrook was concussed again, and might end up shut down for an extended period.

Really?

Yes, it sure seems that way. Despite the fact that this blogger has been promoting the opposite viewpoint all week; the San Diego Union Tribune reports that Turner remains committed to the run, and wants to see an increased role in the offense for LaDainian Tomlinson. I’ve got the utmost respect for Tomlinson as one of the greatest running backs in the history of the NFL – but just as bread goes stale and moldy in the cupboard Tomlinson just isn’t the same back that he once was.

At an average of 3.1 YPC and looking just plain slow at times, more carries for Tomlinson cannot help this Chargers team. They’ve got one of the league’s bets emerging wideouts in Vincent Jackson and a top tier quarterback in Philip Rivers, these two have connected all year in the passing game and are the driving force behind the Chargers offense. Lets hope the focus on the run game doesn’t detract from any of the success these two are having.

I could be wrong – for Tomlinson, I hope that I am, but it just doesn’t seem like a good football move.

Interesting, the article that broke the news goes into detail about how Tomlinson/Sproles are the top paid rush attack in the NFL, and discusses salary per touch, etc. etc. I’d hate to think that this move was motivated by the purse strings, but other than loyalty to Tomlinson’s contributions to the team (which, hasn’t exactly been a historical occurrence in San Diego), there doesn’t seem to be any other explanation. If it were me, I’d rather field a winning product, but, perhaps that’s why I’m on the outside looking in.